Is Gold’s Bull Run Over? This Overlooked Indicator Says No

Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

Gold prices hit $3,500 earlier this year — but lately it’s been stuck, bouncing between $3,200 and $3,400.

The banks can’t agree on what’s next. CitiGroup says gold will crash 25% to $2,500. JP Morgan says the opposite — they’re calling for $4,000.

So, who’s right? Is gold just catching its breath… or has it peaked?

Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard unpack that exact question in this week’s episode, asking whether we’re witnessing the end of a bull run… or the start of gold’s biggest move yet.

“Gold Has Peaked?” Not So Fast

When a viewer pointed to the M2/gold ratio as proof that gold has peaked, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard decided to investigate this rarely-discussed indicator.

What began as a simple chart check became a fascinating discovery. Using data stretching back to the Civil War, they found: 

• A massive head-and-shoulders pattern breaking out NOW
• Why central banks are hoarding gold at “frantic” rates
• Evidence that gold’s biggest move lies ahead — not behind 

Their conclusion shocked us: If this analysis is correct, gold’s 550% rise from 2000 to 2011 was just the warm-up. 

Want to dig deeper? You can recreate the chart yourself using the interactive tools here.

In Case You Missed It:

💰 Musk vs. the Uni-Party… and What It Means for Gold

The Senate just added $4 TRILLION to our deficit. Elon Musk’s response? Threatening to destroy the two-party system.

Mike and Alan break it all down — and show why precious metals may be the only safe haven left.

🪙 Stablecoins are “Safe”? Compared to What?

Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard dive into the Genius Act, Treasury’s stablecoin pitch, and why even the “smartest” plan can’t fix decades of monetary mismanagement. 

Their verdict? Gold is still the ultimate safe haven — and central banks know it.

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Market Pulse: This Week in the News

📈 Copper Prices Spike in U.S. After Trump Tariff Threat
U.S. copper prices surged over 13% — the sharpest one-day gain since 1989 — after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The move pushed U.S. prices far above global benchmarks, with the Comex-LME premium jumping to over $2,600 per tonne. With the U.S. still importing nearly half its copper, analysts warn the policy could raise costs for manufacturers, strain supply chains, and weigh on economic growth.

📅 Tariff Countdown Reset: Trump Moves Deadline to August 1
President Trump has pushed the global tariff reprieve deadline to August 1. Countries without finalized trade deals will face tariffs reverting to April 2 levels. Adding fuel to the fire, Trump threatened new 10% duties on BRICS nations, escalating tensions. All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for clues on how trade policy could shape monetary moves.

🌐 Trade Timeline Slips: Implementation Lags Behind Rhetoric
While Trump vowed that tariff letters would go out Monday and predicted progress by July 9, the real impact won’t hit until August. This gap between announcement and enforcement is creating confusion in the markets, with strategist Greg Valliere warning that “the calendar doesn’t match the headlines.”

💵 Bessent’s Bold Bet: Can Stablecoins Reinforce the Dollar?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is betting that dollar-backed stablecoins could be the modern equivalent of the petrodollar. He argues they could preserve U.S. financial dominance in a digital world—but faces stiff resistance from global regulators. Nations like South Korea and Hong Kong are fast-tracking their own stablecoins, raising questions about who will shape the future of money.

📉 Goldman Sachs: Rate Cuts Could Start in September
Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates as soon as September, citing stronger-than-expected disinflation and easing labor metrics. The firm projects five rate cuts by mid-2026 and sees the terminal rate falling to 3.0–3.25%. While the economy holds steady, slower wage growth and softening job data support a pivot—one that could be bullish for gold.

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