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Is Gold’s Bull Run Over? This Overlooked Indicator Says No

Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

Is Gold's Bull Run Over? This Overlooked Indicator Says No

Gold prices hit $3,500 earlier this year — but lately it’s been stuck, bouncing between $3,200 and $3,400.

The banks can’t agree on what’s next. CitiGroup says gold will crash 25% to $2,500. JP Morgan says the opposite — they’re calling for $4,000.

So, who’s right? Is gold just catching its breath… or has it peaked?

Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard unpack that exact question in this week’s episode, asking whether we’re witnessing the end of a bull run… or the start of gold’s biggest move yet.

“Gold Has Peaked?” Not So Fast

When a viewer pointed to the M2/gold ratio as proof that gold has peaked, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard decided to investigate this rarely-discussed indicator.

What began as a simple chart check became a fascinating discovery. Using data stretching back to the Civil War, they found: 

  • A massive head-and-shoulders pattern breaking out NOW
  • Why central banks are hoarding gold at “frantic” rates
  • Evidence that gold’s biggest move lies ahead — not behind 

Their conclusion shocked us: If this analysis is correct, gold’s 550% rise from 2000 to 2011 was just the warm-up. 

Want to dig deeper? You can recreate the chart yourself using the interactive tools here.

In Case You Missed It:

💰 Musk vs. the Uni-Party… and What It Means for Gold

The Senate just added $4 TRILLION to our deficit. Elon Musk’s response? Threatening to destroy the two-party system.

Mike and Alan break it all down — and show why precious metals may be the only safe haven left.

🪙 Stablecoins are “Safe”? Compared to What?

Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard dive into the Genius Act, Treasury’s stablecoin pitch, and why even the “smartest” plan can’t fix decades of monetary mismanagement. 

Their verdict? Gold is still the ultimate safe haven — and central banks know it.

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Market Pulse: This Week in the News

📈 Copper Prices Spike in U.S. After Trump Tariff Threat
U.S. copper prices surged over 13% — the sharpest one-day gain since 1989 — after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The move pushed U.S. prices far above global benchmarks, with the Comex-LME premium jumping to over $2,600 per tonne. With the U.S. still importing nearly half its copper, analysts warn the policy could raise costs for manufacturers, strain supply chains, and weigh on economic growth.

📅 Tariff Countdown Reset: Trump Moves Deadline to August 1
President Trump has pushed the global tariff reprieve deadline to August 1. Countries without finalized trade deals will face tariffs reverting to April 2 levels. Adding fuel to the fire, Trump threatened new 10% duties on BRICS nations, escalating tensions. All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for clues on how trade policy could shape monetary moves.

🌐 Trade Timeline Slips: Implementation Lags Behind Rhetoric
While Trump vowed that tariff letters would go out Monday and predicted progress by July 9, the real impact won’t hit until August. This gap between announcement and enforcement is creating confusion in the markets, with strategist Greg Valliere warning that “the calendar doesn’t match the headlines.”

💵 Bessent’s Bold Bet: Can Stablecoins Reinforce the Dollar?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is betting that dollar-backed stablecoins could be the modern equivalent of the petrodollar. He argues they could preserve U.S. financial dominance in a digital world—but faces stiff resistance from global regulators. Nations like South Korea and Hong Kong are fast-tracking their own stablecoins, raising questions about who will shape the future of money.

📉 Goldman Sachs: Rate Cuts Could Start in September
Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates as soon as September, citing stronger-than-expected disinflation and easing labor metrics. The firm projects five rate cuts by mid-2026 and sees the terminal rate falling to 3.0–3.25%. While the economy holds steady, slower wage growth and softening job data support a pivot—one that could be bullish for gold.

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Gold vs. Silver: Which Investment Strategy Better Fits Your Portfolio?
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Gold vs. Silver: Which Investment Strategy Better Fits Your Portfolio?

As economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to impact markets, more investors are exploring gold vs silver investment strategies for stability, diversification, and long-term growth. But if you’re just getting started — or even reevaluating your current holdings — you may be wondering: Should I buy gold, silver, or both?  Let’s explore the pros and cons of each metal, how they behave in today’s market, and how to build a strategy that fits your investment goals.  Gold vs. Silver in 2025: What Makes Each Metal Unique?  Gold has long been viewed as a financial safe haven. It’s trusted globally, holds

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From Safe Haven to Portfolio Staple: Why Rich Investors Now Hold 11% in Gold

Gold reached a historic high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, marking a 25% gain in the first half of the year, and currently hovers near this peak. The surge is driven by multiple factors: central banks are aggressively buying gold with 43% planning to increase reserves, the US dollar has fallen 8% despite high Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon. Wealthy investors have doubled their gold allocations to 11% from 5%, while gold ETFs attracted $21.1 billion in Q1 2025. Analysts project gold could stabilize between $3,300-$3,500, with some forecasting prices reaching

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Digital Yuan Fails, Hong Kong Experiments: China’s Race Against Dollar Stablecoins

China views the US GENIUS Act and the rise of dollar-backed stablecoins as a serious threat to its financial sovereignty. The new law allows regulated US banks to issue stablecoins that could attract up to $1.75 trillion in circulation over three years, creating digital dollars that can move globally beyond China’s capital controls. Beijing fears these blockchain-based tokens could undermine its financial repression system and the yuan’s role in international trade. In response, China is experimenting with its own controlled blockchain solutions, including potential renminbi-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong that would be fully traceable and programmable, reflecting Beijing’s vision of

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Gold Mining's Hidden Crisis: Production Costs Climb Despite Record Prices
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Gold Royalty Companies Post Record Profits While Traditional Miners Struggle with Rising Costs

Gold royalty and streaming companies are significantly outperforming traditional gold miners in 2025’s high-cost environment. Companies like Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Triple Flag reported record revenues and cash flows in Q2, with Franco-Nevada’s revenue jumping 42% year-over-year to $369.4 million. These firms avoid direct operating costs by financing miners in exchange for discounted future production rights, providing investors with gold price upside while protecting against downside risks. As inflation remains sticky and tariff costs shift to consumers, these companies offer an attractive “happy medium” between owning physical gold and traditional mining stocks.

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