High gold prices are taking a toll on Asia’s physical demand, according to Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht. India, facing record-high gold prices in rupees, imported just 21 tons in June – the lowest level since April 2023 and contributing to a 30% year-over-year decline in first-half imports to 204 tons. Swiss gold export data reinforced this Asian weakness, with shipments to China falling 39% month-over-month to 16.7 tons, India exports dropping 71% to under 3 tons, and Hong Kong receiving 35% less at under one ton. However, the picture diverged sharply in Europe, where Swiss exports to the UK climbed significantly, reflecting stronger investor appetite for gold ETFs. European gold ETFs recorded substantial inflows of approximately 23 tons in June according to the World Gold Council, demonstrating how investment demand is offsetting physical market weakness in price-sensitive Asian markets.

Gold’s Bull Run: Fed Cuts, China Buying, $5K Target
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver another rate cut this week despite growing dissent among policymakers. Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold buying streak to 13 consecutive months, even as prices trade near record highs. State Street Global Advisors sees a potential path for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, driven by Fed easing, record central bank buying, and surging ETF inflows. Harvard University just tripled its Bitcoin stake while doubling down on gold—allocating 2-to-1 in what one analyst called a “debasement trade.” As banking regulators roll back post-crisis lending restrictions, institutional investors are positioning for a new regime of easy money and rising systemic risks.


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