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In one of his final acts before leaving office, President Biden has implemented the most comprehensive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil industry, potentially disrupting global oil markets more than any previous Western measures. The sanctions target multiple sectors of Russia’s oil infrastructure, including about 160 tankers (doubling the current sanctioned fleet), two major producers accounting for 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports, and critical infrastructure like specialized Arctic shuttle tankers. The measures are particularly significant as U.S. sanctions have historically proved more effective than EU or UK restrictions, with 33 of 39 previously sanctioned tankers ceasing Russian cargo operations. The impact could be substantial, affecting nearly 970,000 barrels per day of seaborne oil shipments, especially given India’s compliance with the restrictions and potential complications for Chinese imports. The sanctions’ long-term effectiveness, however, may depend on their enforcement under the incoming Trump administration.
