Gold and Silver Pull Back — Smart Money Buys When Others Wait 
Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
October 13th, 2025
Gold and Silver Surge Past Records on Trade Threats and Fed Pivot Hopes
Gold smashed through all-time highs on Monday, topping $4,078/oz intraday before settling near $4,068, while silver climbed to $51.70/oz. Driving the rally: escalating U.S.–China trade tensions (with Trump threatening 100% tariffs) and mounting expectations that the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively.
Markets are positioning ahead of policy shifts—not just reacting to them. When precious metals start pricing in Fed cuts before they happen, it signals investors see central banks boxed in by conflicting pressures. That’s often when metals make their biggest moves.
Bank of America Raises Gold Target to $5,000 — Silver Could Hit $65
BofA just lifted its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000/oz, citing relentless safe-haven demand and deepening macro uncertainty. The bank also sees silver testing $65/oz (averaging $56.25), though it’s flagging potential near-term pullbacks on technical grounds.
Wall Street upgrades like this don’t just reflect bullish sentiment—they create it. When major institutions publicly raise targets, it validates the rally for institutional investors still sitting on the sidelines.
The question now: how many fund managers are still underweight metals while their own research teams are screaming “buy”?
Growth Forecast Moderate, But Inflation Refuses to Cooperate
The latest NABE survey projects U.S. GDP growth around 1.8% in 2025, supported by business investment — but hiring is expected to crater to just ~29,000 jobs/month, and inflation will likely stay stuck above 3% through year-end. More than 60% of economists now believe tariffs alone could shave up to 0.5 percentage points off growth.
This is the textbook setup gold loves — weak growth paired with sticky inflation. It’s the environment that backs central banks into a corner: cut rates and risk re-igniting inflation, or hold tight and watch the economy stall. When the Fed has no good options, gold tends to have a very good year.
Fed Minutes Expose Deep Division on Rate Cuts
Recent Fed minutes reveal a central bank at war with itself. Some policymakers are pushing for faster, deeper rate cuts; others are digging in over inflation and financial stability risks. Making matters worse, the ongoing government shutdown has delayed critical economic data releases, forcing the Fed to fly blind just as it needs clarity most.
Gold thrives on Fed uncertainty — not just dovish policy, but the lack of conviction behind it. When policymakers are this divided, markets price in wider ranges of outcomes, and volatility becomes the baseline expectation. That’s rocket fuel for safe-haven assets.
Government Shutdown Deepens Economic Fog
The federal shutdown that began October 1 has furloughed ~900,000 workers and suspended key agency operations—including data collection. With GDP reports, jobs data, and other critical metrics on ice, both policymakers and investors are navigating blind.
When the machinery of government breaks down, gold becomes more than a hedge against bad policy—it’s insurance against no policy. Institutional uncertainty doesn’t just create macro risk; it erodes confidence in the system itself. And when confidence cracks, gold fills the gap.
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