Consumer confidence in the US economy showed significant improvement in June, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index. The gauge jumped 8.3 points to 60.5, exceeding all economist forecasts and marking the first increase this year. The key driver was a sharp decline in inflation expectations—consumers now anticipate a 5.1% price increase over the next year, compared to 6.6% in May. Long-term inflation expectations (5-10 years) remained relatively stable at 4.1%.
The survey revealed broad-based optimism, with the expectations index soaring 10.5 points to 58.4 and current conditions rising to 63.7. Sentiment improved across all political affiliations, with Republicans reaching their highest confidence level since October 2020. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that consumers appear to be adjusting to the trade policy environment, though they remain aware of potential economic risks. The timing is significant, as the survey concluded shortly before the US-China trade framework announcement that maintained existing tariff levels.