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Deutsche Bank’s global co-head of FX research, George Saravelos, has drawn significant parallels between the potential market impact of DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough and the dot-com crash of the 2000s.
If the technology proves as disruptive as initial market reactions suggest, it could prompt a major realignment in tech valuations and capital expenditure.
The analyst envisions a three-phase impact similar to the dot-com era: first, a tech-focused equity selloff that could spread to the broader economy and trigger a mild recession; second, a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance leading to a bond market rally; and finally, dollar weakness driven by unwinding equity inflows and narrowing global rate differentials.
While Saravelos acknowledges the long-term benefits of lower-cost productivity gains and reduced inflation, he emphasizes that near-term market adjustments could be significant, particularly when combined with potential Trump administration fiscal measures and trade policies with China.
