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Euro Economy Flatlines as Germany and France Face Political Crisis

The eurozone’s economy has hit a concerning roadblock, recording zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 against expectations of modest expansion. This stagnation is particularly driven by contractions in the region’s powerhouse economies – Germany declining by 0.2% and France by 0.1%.

The economic challenges are deeply intertwined with political instability, as Germany faces an impending snap election that could see Chancellor Scholz replaced, while France grapples with a budget crisis and potential government shutdown.

The broader picture shows a stark divide in the region’s performance: while Spain, Portugal, and Lithuania demonstrate robust growth, core economies like Germany and France struggle with manufacturing decline, weak consumer confidence, and the looming threat of Trump’s trade measures. This economic weakness has increased pressure on the European Central Bank, with markets now pricing in up to four rate cuts through year-end as the region searches for new growth drivers.

Bank of America gold forecast research report showing gold price chart with $6,000 target, held by analyst at conference table
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Gold bars stacked in front of a financial trading screen showing market price data — gold price holds steady despite Fed rate hike signal
News

Gold Won’t Break. The Fed Just Told You Why.

The Fed just released its most hawkish minutes in over a decade. December rate hike odds hit 40%. The dollar surged. Gold barely moved. That non-reaction is not confusion — it’s the market pricing a structural ceiling on how far this Fed can actually tighten. Here’s the mechanism behind it.

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Kevin Warsh arrived at the Fed with a bold agenda — shrink the balance sheet, normalize policy, restore credibility. But with $6.7 trillion in assets, global bond yields at multi-decade highs, and markets pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts, the math is working against him. Alan breaks down why the plan may be dead on arrival and what it means for gold.

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