Recent economic data strengthens the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning in September. Thursday’s reports revealed two key developments: inflation appears to be moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target, and the labor market shows signs of softening. Producer prices increased 2.6% year-over-year in May, and economists estimate that core inflation likely rose just 0.12% month-over-month.
On the employment front, while initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000, continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million—the highest since November 2021. This suggests unemployed workers are having more difficulty finding new jobs. The Fed is expected to maintain current rates at its June meeting but deliver quarter-point cuts in September and October. However, economists warn that future Trump administration tariffs could push inflation higher later this year.