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Fed’s Bowman and Schmid Push Back Against Rate Cut Expectations

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid have introduced a cautionary note to the rate cut narrative, suggesting that the Fed’s benchmark rate may already be approaching its neutral level following 100 basis points in cuts since September. Their position marks a notable contrast to other Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Governor Waller, who maintain that rates are still restrictive enough to slow economic growth. Bowman specifically highlighted concerns about strong economic growth and a 20% rise in the stock market over the past year, warning that inflation progress could stall. Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner predicts this divide among Fed officials will likely widen with the new rotation of voting members in 2024. The situation is further complicated by uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s economic policies, with Bowman advocating a wait-and-see approach before making further policy decisions. Additionally, Bowman, who is considered a potential candidate for Fed vice chair for supervision, emphasized the need for increased transparency in bank regulation.

 
Gold bars in front of the Federal Reserve building — gold price non-reaction Iran ceasefire
News

Gold Didn’t Fall on Iran Peace News. That’s the Point.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon. Oil fell over 1%. Gold slipped 0.23%. That’s not a non-event — it’s a signal. The gold price isn’t moving on war or peace news because it’s no longer the war holding it up. It’s the Fed trap: a central bank that can’t raise rates into a $39 trillion debt and can’t cut while inflation runs hot. Until that changes, the floor holds.

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Gold price Iran pause monetary floor: three gold bars stacked on a dark surface against a red financial data display showing U.S. national debt figures
News

Trump Called Off the Strike. Gold’s Real Risk Is Still $39 Trillion.

Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold swinging $45 intraday and crude oil down more than 2% — but the two metals told completely different stories. Oil priced out the geopolitical risk. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why: Iran is the catalyst, not the cause. The monetary fundamentals driving gold — $39 trillion in national debt, fifteen years of money creation, central banks in their fifteenth straight year of net buying — don’t get resolved by a phone call.

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Latest News

Gold bars in front of the Federal Reserve building — gold price non-reaction Iran ceasefire
News

Gold Didn’t Fall on Iran Peace News. That’s the Point.

Trump called off a planned strike on Iran Monday afternoon. Oil fell over 1%. Gold slipped 0.23%. That’s not a non-event — it’s a signal. The gold price isn’t moving on war or peace news because it’s no longer the war holding it up. It’s the Fed trap: a central bank that can’t raise rates into a $39 trillion debt and can’t cut while inflation runs hot. Until that changes, the floor holds.

Read More »
Gold price Iran pause monetary floor: three gold bars stacked on a dark surface against a red financial data display showing U.S. national debt figures
News

Trump Called Off the Strike. Gold’s Real Risk Is Still $39 Trillion.

Trump’s decision to pause a planned Iran strike sent gold swinging $45 intraday and crude oil down more than 2% — but the two metals told completely different stories. Oil priced out the geopolitical risk. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why: Iran is the catalyst, not the cause. The monetary fundamentals driving gold — $39 trillion in national debt, fifteen years of money creation, central banks in their fifteenth straight year of net buying — don’t get resolved by a phone call.

Read More »

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