Gold and Silver Hit Records Amid Shutdown Stalemate

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
October 16th, 2025 

Gold at Records, Silver Near Highs — And Wall Street Says the Run Isn’t Done 

Gold pushed to fresh records around $4,240 Thursday, now up roughly 60% year-to-date as haven demand meets rising odds of easier Fed policy. Silver is sprinting too: it briefly tagged an all-time high near $53.60 this week and hovers just below, supported by tight supply, industrial demand, and spillover from gold. 

Big banks are leaning bullish. HSBC raised its gold forecasts, citing persistent central-bank buying, macro uncertainty, and a softer dollar. Goldman says the buyer base is broadening beyond traditional holders, which tends to extend cycles. 

When both metals make new highs alongside elevated policy and geopolitical risk, it signals investors are paying up for insurance — often before that volatility shows up in equities. And right now, there’s no shortage of policy risk to price in. 

U.S.-China Trade Fight Intensifies with Trump’s New Tariff Threats 

President Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, paired with Beijing’s export controls, has markets bracing for a prolonged trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a leaders’ meeting is being explored, but rhetoric on both sides is hardening. 

Historically, U.S.–China flare-ups push investors toward hedges and raise stagflation risks by pressuring supply chains while dampening growth. That mix — tariff shock plus softer real-rate expectations — has helped propel gold to records and kept silver bid. 

The real catalyst will be effective dates and any broadening of export curbs. Concrete timelines tend to drive sharp moves across commodities, the dollar, and rates — all key inputs for precious metals pricing. 

Shutdown Day 16: Ninth Failed Senate Vote, Growing Economic Costs 

The partial U.S. government shutdown hit Day 16 after the Senate again failed to advance a funding bill, keeping agencies hobbled and economic releases disrupted. Treasury pegs the output hit at up to $15B per week, and a federal judge temporarily blocked mass layoffs of furloughed workers as legal fights escalate. 

Politically, the impasse still hinges on healthcare subsidy provisions and broader spending priorities. Prolonged shutdowns can dent growth, muddy inflation readings, and complicate the Fed’s path — conditions that typically boost interest in gold as a portfolio hedge against policy and data uncertainty. 

Washington may be closed for domestic business, but the checkbook for foreign aid is still open. 

Washington Expands Argentina Package to $40B 

Remember that $20 billion currency swap we covered last week? Washington just doubled it. Treasury is now assembling an additional $20B from private banks and sovereign funds to pair with the existing facility, creating a potential $40B backstop for Argentina’s crisis-hit economy. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent says disbursements hinge on policy follow-through, after earlier comments tying aid to the Oct. 26 vote rattled markets. The goal: stabilize the peso and ease dollar liquidity strains. 

The doubling suggests either the initial package wasn’t enough to calm markets, or Washington sees contagion risk spreading if Argentina’s reforms stumble. If finalized, it could cool near-term FX volatility and curb contagion, but credibility rests on execution and coordination with multilaterals. Persistent instability in major EMs tends to keep a bid under safe havens — gold included. 

India’s Festival Season Meets Record Prices — and Coin Shortages 

India’s peak gold-buying window, Navratri through Diwali and into the winter wedding season, is colliding with record prices. Retailers report softer traditional jewelry volumes but healthy interest in lighter pieces, coins, and bars, with some consumers exchanging old gold to manage costs. 

Here’s the kicker: Industry groups are flagging coin shortages in popular sizes as investors pivot from heavy bridal sets to investment-grade bullion. It’s not just an India story — physical silver markets globally have seen tightness in retail products even as prices rally, a sign that supply chains are struggling to keep pace with demand shifts. 

India and China anchor global jewelry demand, and even when record prices pinch wedding budgets, cultural buying doesn’t disappear — it shifts. This year, that appetite is showing up in coins and bars, precisely where supply is tightest. This is exactly what Mike Maloney warned about earlier this week — see his full analysis of the global silver shortage.

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