Hawkish Fed, Gold Below $4,000, Silver Below $60 — and a Market That Disagrees.

Published: 06-24-2026, 04:19 pm | Updated: 06-24-2026, 04:35 pm

In today’s update: The gold price below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025, silver below $60 for the first time since December 2025 — but while the Fed reprices higher, China just posted its biggest import month in two years, gold ETFs snapped a four-week outflow streak, and every major bank is still targeting $4,600–$5,100 by year-end.

Gold fell below $4,000 on June 24 — its first breach of that level since November 2025. Silver dropped more than 5% in a single session. Fed Chair Warsh has turned hawkish. The U.S. Dollar Index hit a 13-month high. Only 1 in 4 Americans now thinks it’s a good time to invest — the lowest reading since Q2 2022. The surface picture is ugly. But underneath, a different story is running. China just posted its highest monthly gold imports since March 2024. Gold-backed ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflow since mid-April. And Standard Chartered projects gold at $5,100/oz by mid-2027. With the gold price below $4,000 for the first time in 2026, the paper market and the physical market are not telling the same story.

Why Did Gold and Silver Sell Off This Week?

Gold slipped below $4,000 on Wednesday — the first time since November 2025. As a result, spot prices fell more than $120 in a single session. Silver fell harder, dropping over 5% and breaking below $60 for the first time since December 2025. The driver is simple. CME FedWatch now puts the probability of a September rate hike at roughly 70%, up from 29% a week ago. Fed Chair Warsh has signaled a commitment to price stability. Governor Waller has explicitly opposed rate cuts. A stronger dollar followed — consequently, the U.S. Dollar Index hit a fresh 13-month high — and both metals, which pay no yield, felt the squeeze. In response, ING cut its gold forecasts, now projecting $4,300 in Q3 and $4,600 in Q4, down from $4,850 and $5,000. The mechanism is familiar: tighter policy expectations strengthen the dollar, and precious metals soften. This is also what drove every major pullback in this cycle. With the gold price below $4,000 in 2026, the resolution will follow the same path it always has.

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What Does Investor Panic Historically Signal for Gold?

Only 25% of Americans believe it’s a good time to invest right now. That’s the lowest reading since Q2 2022, down from 34% last quarter, per Allianz Life’s Q2 2026 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study. Recession fears and volatility are the top reasons cited. Roughly half have already shifted to bonds and cash. This is worth paying attention to — but not for the reason most people think. Broad investor retreats tend to mark the later stages of a correction, not the start of a new downtrend. People who own physical gold for the right reasons don’t need market confidence to hold it. The metal’s job is to sit outside the financial system precisely when moments like this arrive.

Are Gold ETF Investors Starting to Come Back?

Physical gold-backed ETFs took in $1.1 billion last week — roughly 5.1 tonnes. That’s the strongest weekly inflow since mid-April, according to World Gold Council data. It also reversed four straight weeks of outflows that had drained $7.6 billion and 58.2 tonnes from fund vaults. Total holdings now stand at 4,086.3 tonnes. Cumulative 2026 inflows remain nearly $17 billion positive. ETF demand from Western institutions is one of three key pillars supporting gold — alongside central bank buying and physical flows from Asia. When institutions return to a selloff, it typically signals they see value, not danger. Whether this holds will depend on Friday’s PCE print.

Why Is China Still Buying Gold While the Price Falls?

China imported approximately 163 tonnes of gold in May 2026 — the highest monthly figure since March 2024, per Chinese customs data. Total imports for the first five months of 2026 reached about 692 tonnes, up 76% year-over-year. Physical bullion bars and gold accumulation products are driving the demand. The People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to 19 consecutive months in May. It added nearly 10 tonnes — its largest single-month purchase since December 2024, per the World Gold Council. Chinese buyers are accumulating at prices 25–30% below January’s all-time high. That is not reactive buying. It is deliberate, strategic, and ongoing — and it tells you something important about where the structural demand floor for gold sits.

Standard Chartered Sees Gold at $5,100 by Mid-2027 — Even in Its Base Case

Standard Chartered’s half-year 2026 outlook projects gold at $5,100/oz by mid-2027, naming it the bank’s preferred portfolio diversifier. The call rests on three pillars: continued central bank accumulation, persistent fiscal deficits, and a recovery in Western investor demand as real yields stabilize. In addition, Standard Chartered Global CIO Steve Brice flagged energy prices, central bank policy, and investor positioning as the key H2 2026 pivot points. At current prices near $3,976, that $5,100 target is roughly 28% upside. For context, Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year-end. Deutsche Bank targets $4,800 in Q4. ING also targets $4,600 in Q4. Every major bank is therefore pointing in the same direction. The near-term is noisy. The long-term picture is not.

SOURCES
1. Bloomberg — China’s Gold Imports Surge to Most in More Than Two Years; Goldman Sachs Lops $500 Off Gold Target on No Fed Cuts This Year; Deutsche Bank Cuts Gold Forecasts Up to 22% as Bulls Temper View; China’s Central Bank Extends Gold-Buying Streak as Prices Stay Weak
2. ING Think — Gold’s Correction Prompts a Forecast Reset
3. CNBC — Gold Hits Over Seven-Month Low as Dollar Firms, Rate Hike Bets Rise
4. CNBC — Dollar at 13-Month High as Rate Hike Bets, Stock Rout Boost Demand
5. CME Group — FedWatch Tool, September 2026 Rate Hike Probability
6. World Gold Council — China Gold Market Update: Official Buying Accelerated in May
7. World Gold Council — Gold ETF Flows: May 2026
8. Allianz Life — Only 1 in 4 Americans Think Now Is a Good Time to Invest, Q2 2026 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study
9. ForexLive via TradingView — Standard Chartered Sees Gold at $5,100 and S&P at 7,950 by Mid-2027
10. Mining.com — China’s Gold Imports Surge to Most in More Than Two Years
11. FXStreet — US Dollar Index Holds Above 101.50 on Hawkish Fed Bets

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. 

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