Gold on Track for $3,000 Despite Recent Volatility

Despite retreating from its recent record high of $2,947, gold appears set for additional gains. State Street’s chief gold strategist George Milling-Stanley forecasts prices between $2,900-$3,100 later this year. Three fundamental drivers support gold’s continued strength:

First, central bank purchases have become a consistent feature of the gold market over the past 15 years. These acquisitions account for 10-25% of total end-user demand annually and provide crucial price support during downturns. According to Milling-Stanley, this buying “basically doubled in 2022 to more than 1,000 metric tons.”

Second, emerging market investment, particularly in China and India, has surged over the past 18 months. This growth has been accompanied by increased jewelry demand toward the end of last year.

Third, Western investors in Europe and North America have renewed their interest in gold, primarily due to concerns about economic outlooks in both regions.

This broad-based demand was dramatically illustrated when SPDR Gold shares (GLD), the largest exchange-traded fund backed by physical gold, recorded its largest one-day inflow ever of $1.9 billion on February 21, 2024. Milling-Stanley notes this reflects both institutional and individual investors establishing long-term positions, along with some “fear of missing out” as momentum builds.

While inflation remains a wildcard—with January’s CPI rising 3%, higher than expected—the market’s reaction to economic indicators suggests gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge remains strong.