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The price gap between US and international gold markets is finally returning to normal after months of disruption. This shift comes as fears about Trump’s potential tariffs on gold imports begin to fade.
The difference between New York’s Comex futures and the London spot market has shrunk to around $10 per ounce, down from January’s peak of about $60. This brings the market closer to the typical few-dollar spread that normally exists. Traders worldwide had been rushing gold to America to profit from higher US prices, but this arbitrage opportunity is now cooling off.
Gold stockpiles at Comex have reached 39.5 million troy ounces—a four-year high—which is nearly enough to cover all short positions on the exchange. At the same time, London’s gold borrowing costs have dropped from record highs back to near zero. This has helped resolve the bottlenecks that occurred as traders emptied both commercial and Bank of England vaults to ship gold to the US.
Bart Melek of TD Securities explains, “That trade is getting exhausted,” pointing out that the US now holds an unusual amount of kilo bars typically destined for Asian retail markets. While Trump’s future tariff decisions could still disrupt prices, the current high inventory levels in the US may help stabilize the market.
