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Gold Takes Breather After Record Surge as US-Japan Trade Talks Show Promise

Gold’s record-breaking momentum temporarily slowed on Thursday, trading at around $3,325 an ounce following Wednesday’s biggest one-day gain in two years. The pause came as positive signals emerged from initial US-Japan trade negotiations, with President Trump describing the talks as “big progress.” Despite this brief interruption, gold has surged almost 27% this year—matching its 2024 performance—as investors seek security amid escalating trade tensions.

The rally has been fueled by dollar weakness and Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell’s cautious approach to tariffs, disappointing those hoping for swift central bank intervention. Nicholas Frappell of ABC Refinery attributes gold’s strength to multiple uncertainties: the scale of potential tariffs, the US administration’s strategic intentions, and how America’s trade partners might respond. While no immediate tariff suspension resulted from the US-Japan discussions, negotiators plan to meet again soon, aiming for an agreement within the 90-day grace period.

Stack of silver bars arranged in a pyramid, with one bar pulled partway out of the middle row, lit by warm side lighting against a dark background — illustrating the reversal in speculative silver positioning ahead of the Fed’s October 2026 decision.
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Silver Price Outlook October 2026: The Fed Hold Is Locked. Positioning Isn’t.

September’s reading showed silver longs crowding in at the 73rd percentile of open interest into a falling market. That has since collapsed to the 7th percentile — a reversal that has deepened each week — even as the Fed’s Wednesday decision settled into a near-lock and the gold-silver ratio pushed past 74 for the first time this cycle.

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