Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Goldman Sachs has nearly doubled its forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, raising it from 20% to 35%. This increase comes as the U.S. approaches the Trump administration’s “liberation day” on April 2, which will clarify upcoming tariff actions and likely trigger international retaliation. The bank attributes this higher recession risk to three key factors: an already lower growth baseline, sharp recent deterioration in both household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating they’re willing to accept short-term economic weakness to pursue their policy goals.
Goldman now expects President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs averaging 15% across all U.S. trading partners this week, though product and country exclusions may eventually reduce this average. The bank has revised several key economic forecasts downward: lowering 2025 GDP growth to just 1.0%, raising the year-end 2025 unemployment rate to 4.5%, and increasing year-end 2025 core PCE inflation to 3.5%. In response to these conditions, Goldman now predicts the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive interest rate cuts in 2025 (July, September, and November), which would bring the terminal federal funds rate to 3.50-3.75%.
