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Guggenheim Sees Four Fed Rate Cuts in 2025, Bucking Market Consensus

Guggenheim Partners’ Chief Investment Officer Anne Walsh has laid out a bold forecast for 2025, predicting quarterly Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations that have recently scaled back to just one or two cuts.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Walsh expressed a more optimistic view on Trump’s trade policies, suggesting tariffs will likely average less than 10% and be more targeted than markets fear, particularly while the dollar maintains its reserve currency status.

On the investment front, Walsh sees opportunities in both bonds and equities, highlighting that the bond market’s recent range-bound trading creates interesting possibilities.

She identifies 5% yields on 10-year Treasury bonds as an “extreme” buying opportunity and expects tight yield spreads to benefit U.S. equities.

Walsh projects 8-10% returns for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, driven by artificial intelligence, energy sector developments, and manufacturing reshoring, while cautioning that political-policy tensions could create significant market volatility throughout the year.

Gold bar with rising price chart alongside oil pump jack at sunset with declining price chart, illustrating the gold and oil inverse correlation
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Gold bar resting on financial newspaper — gold price structural bid holds firm amid jobs data and deficit news
News

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April payrolls smashed forecasts, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held under pressure, and the OMB projected a $2.065 trillion deficit. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why the structural case for physical gold is stronger than any single headline.

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War usually pushes gold higher. But since Operation Epic Fury began in February 2026, the opposite has played out — gold sells off on escalation and rallies on peace. The reason ties back to fiscal dominance, oil prices, and the path to lower interest rates. This article breaks down the pattern, the macro logic behind it, and what it means for short-term and long-term gold investors.

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