IMF projections show global public debt will exceed pandemic-era peaks, approaching 100% of global GDP by 2030. After reaching 98.9% during COVID in 2020 and dropping 10 percentage points over two years, debt is now climbing rapidly again.
The IMF cites U.S. tariff announcements and potential international countermeasures as key factors driving economic uncertainty. Global fiscal deficits are expected to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2025, up slightly from 5.0% in 2024.
If President Trump implements steeper tariffs triggering retaliatory measures, debt could surge past 117% of GDP by 2027—the highest since World War II. Though only one-third of IMF member countries show accelerating debt growth compared to pre-pandemic levels, these nations make up 80% of global GDP, concentrating the problem in major economies.