Japan’s inflation continues to accelerate, with May’s core CPI hitting 3.7% year-over-year, surpassing both market expectations and the BOJ’s 2% target for over three years. The inflation surge is broad-based, with goods prices rising 5.3% and services inflation at 1.4%. Food costs are particularly problematic – rice prices have doubled, rice balls cost 20% more, and chocolate bars are up 27% from a year ago.
The Bank of Japan faces a challenging balancing act: persistent inflation suggests the need for higher interest rates, but uncertainty around President Trump’s trade policies creates economic risks. Governor Ueda has indicated the BOJ’s commitment to gradual rate increases, warning that moving too slowly could trigger a wage-price spiral. However, economists expect the central bank to wait until early 2026 for its next 25-basis-point rate hike as it monitors U.S.-Japan trade negotiations.