Markets Predict Fed’s Quietest Year as Rate Cuts Look Unlikely

Markets are predicting a notably quiet year for Federal Reserve policy in 2025, with only an 18.3% chance of no rate changes and a 36.6% chance of just one quarter-point cut.

After implementing three rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has hit pause as it carefully monitors inflation trends and potential policy impacts.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there’s only an 18.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged through December 2025, and a 36.6% chance of a single quarter-point cut. The situation is complicated by two key factors: potential seasonal adjustment issues in January’s inflation data and President Trump’s proposed import tariffs, which could push prices higher.

While the Fed maintains its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment, the strong job market and persistent inflation above the 2% target are keeping policymakers in a cautious stance.