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Morgan Stanley strategists have detected a “silent plurality” of investors prepared to short the dollar, contrasting with the more vocal dollar bulls currently dominating market discourse.
Their analysis suggests significant bearish pressure could emerge from multiple catalysts, including March inflation data potentially supporting Fed rate cuts, congressional fiscal negotiations, and a more moderate trade policy approach than markets expect.
The bank’s notably bearish forecast predicts the US Dollar Index falling to 105 by Q1 end and 101 by year-end, significantly lower than median forecasts of 108.7 and 106.9.
While the dollar has strengthened against most major currencies recently, particularly those vulnerable to U.S. tariff threats, it has weakened 1.6% this week following Trump’s softer stance on China tariffs.
Morgan Stanley strategist David Adams recommends shorting the dollar against the euro, yen, and sterling, suggesting that many investors are waiting not for directional conviction but for optimal timing to establish short positions.
