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The Bank of England’s latest monetary policy decision took markets by surprise with its dovish undertones, despite the expected quarter-point rate cut to 4.5%.
The unanimous decision, particularly noteworthy for including two votes for a half-point reduction, marked a significant shift in sentiment.
Former hawk Catherine Mann’s support for aggressive easing represented a dramatic reversal from her November stance, when she alone voted to maintain rates at 5%. The dovish turn triggered immediate market reactions, with the pound dropping sharply to $1.2365 from $1.2504 and the 2-year gilt yield falling 9 basis points.
The bank’s minutes revealed concerns about financial conditions and inflation expectations, while acknowledging emerging risks from U.S. tariff announcements. Goldman Sachs Asset Management now anticipates five rate cuts this year, though the BoE maintains a cautious outlook on inflation, projecting a rise to 3.7% due to utility costs and other short-term factors, despite halving its GDP forecast.
