Precious Metals Brace for Critical Fed Inflation Gauge

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors 
December 5th, 2025 

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Finally Arrives 

After a historic government shutdown delayed its release by over a month, the September PCE inflation report drops Friday at 10 a.m. ET — the Fed’s last major inflation snapshot before next week’s rate decision.  

Economists expect headline PCE to rise to 2.8% year-over-year, with core PCE holding at 2.9%.  

Markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut when the Fed meets December 9-10. That’s up sharply from 62% a month ago. Recent labor market softness has added urgency—private payrolls dropped 32,000 in November, and layoffs topped 1 million for the year. 

The stakes are high. An inflation surprise in either direction could shake rate cut expectations and trigger volatility across stocks, bonds, and currencies. With core PCE well above the Fed’s 2% target, today’s report will test whether the central bank can engineer its hoped-for soft landing. 

Ordinary Americans are feeling that inflation pressure firsthand. 

Americans’ Economic Confidence Stuck Near Multi-Year Lows 

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index remained mired at 51.0 in December’s preliminary reading, essentially flat from November and hovering near the lowest levels in years.  

Behind that number sits a troubling disconnect. Americans are bracing for potential job losses while watching prices stay stubbornly high. 

The vulnerability is real. Savings rates are low. Household debt hit record levels—around $18.6 trillion as of Q3 2025. There’s less cushion if the labor market weakens further. 

The timing matters. The Fed is preparing to cut rates next week partly to support a cooling labor market. But if consumers pull back spending due to economic anxiety, that could create the very slowdown policymakers are trying to avoid. 

For precious metals investors, historically weak consumer confidence often correlates with higher gold and silver demand as households seek safe-haven assets. 

Those anxieties are showing up in financial markets, too. 

Bond Market Suffers Worst Week Since June 

US Treasury bonds are heading for their worst week in six months, with 10-year yields climbing 10 basis points to 4.12% — the biggest weekly jump since June. The 30-year yield hit 4.78%, its highest level since September. 

What’s driving the selloff? Some Federal Reserve policymakers remain cautious on further easing due to inflationary fears. That’s preventing yields from sustaining their late-November break below 4%. It’s keeping pressure on bonds even as the market prices in an 87% chance of a rate cut next week. 

This matters beyond Treasuries. Rising bond yields typically strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs across the economy. That creates headwinds for stocks, real estate, and precious metals. 

The question now: Will today’s inflation data validate the Fed’s caution or give dovish voices ammunition for deeper cuts ahead? 

The bond selloff is creating headwinds for precious metals as well. 

Gold Treads Water as Investors Await Inflation Data 

Gold held steady near $4,235 per ounce Friday, caught between competing forces as higher Treasury yields offset support from a weaker dollar.  

Gold is on track for a modest weekly decline as investors await the delayed September PCE inflation report. Most economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its December 9-10 meeting. 

Lower rates typically favor non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Silver rose 0.5% to $57.40 per ounce after hitting a record high of $58.98 earlier this week. 

The real story? Gold is consolidating after November’s rally, waiting for the next catalyst. If today’s inflation data comes in hot, it could temporarily pressure precious metals. But with persistent geopolitical uncertainty and central banks still buying, the longer-term trend re mains bullish. 

Silver, meanwhile, has its own compelling story to tell. 

Silver’s Industrial Appetite Keeps Growing 

Global physical silver demand hit 1.16 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial applications now accounting for well over half of annual consumption. The metal’s versatility is showing up in surprising places. 

Automotive demand is projected to reach 90 million ounces by 2025. That’s driven by electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and broader decarbonization efforts. 

Meanwhile, brazing and soldering applications—used in everything from air conditioning to electric power distribution—are expected to total 52.9 million ounces in 2025. 

Not every sector is growing, though. Silverware demand has tumbled from 73.5 million ounces in 2022 to 54.2 million ounces in 2024. Another 15% decline is expected in 2025 to just 46 million ounces. 

Silver’s increasingly becoming a technology metal rather than a luxury one. With supply already tight and industrial demand accelerating, that structural shift could keep upward pressure on prices—especially as the renewable energy transition picks up steam. 

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