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The Stagflation Threat: How Trump’s Trade Wars Could Cripple Economic Growth

In a recent Opinion piece on MarketWatch, columnist Stephen Roach argues that Trump’s “America First” protectionism is leading the US toward prolonged stagflation – a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation.

Unlike the temporary supply chain disruptions during COVID-19, Trump’s trade policies represent a permanent decoupling from global trade networks, especially with China and potentially even with North American partners.

This reversal of supply chain efficiencies could eliminate the 0.5 percentage point reduction in inflation that the US has enjoyed annually over the past decade.

Reshoring manufacturing to the US won’t be quick or easy, as production platforms take years to develop, and policy uncertainty may cause delays or cancellations of planned investments.

Original Source: MarketWatch

Central bank committee room with one empty chair at the table — what PCE at 3.5% means for gold investors as four central banks hold rates amid stagflation signals
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PCE at 3.5%, GDP Miss: Why This Is Bullish for Gold

PCE inflation hit 3.5% in March — the highest since May 2023 — while Q1 GDP grew just 2.0%, missing the 2.2% forecast. Four central banks held rates the same morning, with two signalling they discussed hikes. When growth slows and inflation stays hot, the Fed is trapped. That trap has historically been the strongest environment for physical gold and silver.

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Central bank committee room with one empty chair at the table — what PCE at 3.5% means for gold investors as four central banks hold rates amid stagflation signals
News

PCE at 3.5%, GDP Miss: Why This Is Bullish for Gold

PCE inflation hit 3.5% in March — the highest since May 2023 — while Q1 GDP grew just 2.0%, missing the 2.2% forecast. Four central banks held rates the same morning, with two signalling they discussed hikes. When growth slows and inflation stays hot, the Fed is trapped. That trap has historically been the strongest environment for physical gold and silver.

Read More »
April 30, 2026
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