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The Stagflation Threat: How Trump’s Trade Wars Could Cripple Economic Growth

In a recent Opinion piece on MarketWatch, columnist Stephen Roach argues that Trump’s “America First” protectionism is leading the US toward prolonged stagflation – a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation.

Unlike the temporary supply chain disruptions during COVID-19, Trump’s trade policies represent a permanent decoupling from global trade networks, especially with China and potentially even with North American partners.

This reversal of supply chain efficiencies could eliminate the 0.5 percentage point reduction in inflation that the US has enjoyed annually over the past decade.

Reshoring manufacturing to the US won’t be quick or easy, as production platforms take years to develop, and policy uncertainty may cause delays or cancellations of planned investments.

Gold bar with rising price chart alongside oil pump jack at sunset with declining price chart, illustrating the gold and oil inverse correlation
Articles

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Gold bar resting on financial newspaper — gold price structural bid holds firm amid jobs data and deficit news
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Jobs Beat, Ceasefire, Deficit: What It Means for Gold

April payrolls smashed forecasts, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held under pressure, and the OMB projected a $2.065 trillion deficit. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why the structural case for physical gold is stronger than any single headline.

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Why Peace Is Bullish for Gold in 2026 (And War Isn't)
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Why Peace Is Bullish for Gold in 2026 (And War Isn’t)

War usually pushes gold higher. But since Operation Epic Fury began in February 2026, the opposite has played out — gold sells off on escalation and rallies on peace. The reason ties back to fiscal dominance, oil prices, and the path to lower interest rates. This article breaks down the pattern, the macro logic behind it, and what it means for short-term and long-term gold investors.

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Latest News

Gold bar resting on financial newspaper — gold price structural bid holds firm amid jobs data and deficit news
News

Jobs Beat, Ceasefire, Deficit: What It Means for Gold

April payrolls smashed forecasts, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held under pressure, and the OMB projected a $2.065 trillion deficit. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why the structural case for physical gold is stronger than any single headline.

Read More »
Why Peace Is Bullish for Gold in 2026 (And War Isn't)
Videos

Why Peace Is Bullish for Gold in 2026 (And War Isn’t)

War usually pushes gold higher. But since Operation Epic Fury began in February 2026, the opposite has played out — gold sells off on escalation and rallies on peace. The reason ties back to fiscal dominance, oil prices, and the path to lower interest rates. This article breaks down the pattern, the macro logic behind it, and what it means for short-term and long-term gold investors.

Read More »

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