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The Stagflation Threat: How Trump’s Trade Wars Could Cripple Economic Growth

Published: 04-28-2025, 01:30 pm | Updated: 04-28-2025, 10:34 am

In a recent Opinion piece on MarketWatch, columnist Stephen Roach argues that Trump’s “America First” protectionism is leading the US toward prolonged stagflation – a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation.

Unlike the temporary supply chain disruptions during COVID-19, Trump’s trade policies represent a permanent decoupling from global trade networks, especially with China and potentially even with North American partners.

This reversal of supply chain efficiencies could eliminate the 0.5 percentage point reduction in inflation that the US has enjoyed annually over the past decade.

Reshoring manufacturing to the US won’t be quick or easy, as production platforms take years to develop, and policy uncertainty may cause delays or cancellations of planned investments.

Original Source: MarketWatch

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