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Marc Seidner, Pimco’s chief investment officer of non-traditional strategies, is challenging market consensus with his outlook on Federal Reserve policy, projecting two quarter-point rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 and possibly more thereafter.
This view contrasts sharply with current market pricing, which anticipates fewer than two cuts this year due to concerns about potential Trump-era tariffs stoking inflation. Seidner, whose Dynamic Bond Fund has demonstrated exceptional performance, argues that Trump’s campaign criticism of inflationary policies makes aggressive protectionist measures unlikely.
Based on this outlook, Pimco is positioning toward two-to-five-year Treasuries while avoiding longer-term bonds due to deficit concerns. The firm also sees opportunity in five-year UK gilts, expecting more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of England compared to the Fed.
