Trade Optimism Boosts Dollar and Pressures Gold Despite Ongoing Geopolitical Conflicts

The Fed’s December decision just became a coin flip. September jobs beat expectations with 119,000 positions added, but traders slashed rate cut odds to 50% after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that easing now could “prolong elevated inflation.” Her concerns mirror Main Street, where 70% of small businesses cite inflation as their top worry. Gold dropped below $4,070 as the dollar strengthened and rate cut hopes faded.

Gold treads water near $4,100 as traders await key Fed minutes and delayed jobs data, while China rapidly closes the “gold gap” with the U.S. in a strategic de-dollarization push. Meanwhile, Americans are tightening belts this holiday season with spending down from last year’s record highs. President Trump floats a $2,000 “tariff dividend” that economists say doesn’t add up, and Nvidia’s $24 billion AI investment spree raises questions about circular funding on Wall Street.

After weeks of data blackout, the picture isn’t pretty. Jobless claims show a cooling labor market while consumer sentiment crashes to near-record lows. Credit card delinquencies just hit 15-year highs with Americans carrying $1.2 trillion in debt. The S&P 500 faces its longest losing streak since August. Meanwhile, wealthy investors are leasing out gold bars for yield. Today’s Nuggets explore the cracks in the consumer economy and how smart money is responding.