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Trade War Consequences: Apollo Economist Predicts Rapid Descent into Summer Recession

Published: 04-29-2025, 12:35 pm | Updated: 04-29-2025, 09:36 am

Apollo Global Management warns that Trump’s tariffs could trigger a summer recession, with Americans experiencing store shortages as early as May.

According to their chief economist Torsten Slok, the timeline begins with April’s tariff announcements disrupting shipping from China, leading to supply chain issues by May, retail and trucking industry layoffs by June, and ultimately a recession by summer 2025.

While Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges trade tensions with China are “unsustainable,” he doesn’t predict a full recession, and some analysts note existing inventory may delay visible impacts.

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