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Treasury Yields Fall to 2025 Lows on Middle East War Fears

Treasury yields dropped significantly on Wednesday, with 10- and 30-year rates hitting their lowest levels of 2025, driven by heightened Middle East tensions following President Trump’s comments about taking ownership of Gaza.

The flight-to-safety trade pushed the 10-year yield down 6.2 basis points to 4.449% and the 30-year yield down 7.5 basis points to 4.672%, marking their lowest points since December.

This bond market movement occurred against a backdrop of mixed economic signals, including stronger-than-expected ADP employment data showing 183,000 new jobs in January and a concerning jump in the U.S. trade deficit to $98.4 billion in December, its second-highest level ever.

Adding to the market context, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s comments suggested rate hikes would only come with economic overheating, while the Treasury Department announced plans to maintain current auction sizes, providing some stability amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

Ten Percent Sent Gold Abroad. Nine Percent Brought It Home.
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Ten Percent Sent Gold Abroad. Nine Percent Brought It Home.

The financial press says central banks are bringing their gold home. The World Gold Council asked 76 of them, and the numbers run the other way: more spread gold into additional foreign jurisdictions last year than repatriated it. What that says about custody, and about how you hold your own metal.

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Gold Hits 3-Month High as Oil Falls Ahead of Bessent’s Iran Sanctions Announcement

Gold hit a fresh three-month high and silver turned positive today, both ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 2 PM ET press conference unveiling new Iran sanctions. But oil is falling into the announcement, the opposite of what a “tougher sanctions” headline usually does to markets. Here’s the mechanism actually driving today’s move, and why it isn’t really about Iran.

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Gold silver price today Iran sanctions: two trading monitors show gold prices trending upward and oil prices trending downward on the same day.
News

Gold Hits 3-Month High as Oil Falls Ahead of Bessent’s Iran Sanctions Announcement

Gold hit a fresh three-month high and silver turned positive today, both ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 2 PM ET press conference unveiling new Iran sanctions. But oil is falling into the announcement, the opposite of what a “tougher sanctions” headline usually does to markets. Here’s the mechanism actually driving today’s move, and why it isn’t really about Iran.

Read More »

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