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Treasury Yields Fall to 2025 Lows on Middle East War Fears

Treasury yields dropped significantly on Wednesday, with 10- and 30-year rates hitting their lowest levels of 2025, driven by heightened Middle East tensions following President Trump’s comments about taking ownership of Gaza.

The flight-to-safety trade pushed the 10-year yield down 6.2 basis points to 4.449% and the 30-year yield down 7.5 basis points to 4.672%, marking their lowest points since December.

This bond market movement occurred against a backdrop of mixed economic signals, including stronger-than-expected ADP employment data showing 183,000 new jobs in January and a concerning jump in the U.S. trade deficit to $98.4 billion in December, its second-highest level ever.

Adding to the market context, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s comments suggested rate hikes would only come with economic overheating, while the Treasury Department announced plans to maintain current auction sizes, providing some stability amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone
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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone

Central banks reshape gold markets through the most concentrated sovereign buying in decades — but that’s only one of five forces moving gold right now. Physical investment is overtaking jewelry demand for the first time on record. Russia’s figures don’t add up. China just hit the brakes. Here’s what’s driving the market.

Read More »
Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here's the NFP Decision Map.
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Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here’s the NFP Decision Map.

Gold is holding near $4,481 with rate hike risk rising — a divergence that, in any prior rate cycle, would have already sent gold lower. Tomorrow’s May jobs report is the last major data point before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting June 16–17. Here’s the three-scenario decision map: what a hot print, an in-line print, and a soft miss each mean for gold — and why the Fed’s policy trap makes the structural case for sound money regardless of Friday’s number.

Read More »
Rate Hike Odds Just Hit 85%. Gold Is Up. Here's Why.
Articles

Rate Hike Odds Just Hit 85%. Gold Is Up. Here’s Why.

Rate hike odds just hit 85%. Gold is up anyway. Most headlines won’t explain why — because the answer requires flipping the standard model upside down. The number that actually drives gold isn’t the fed funds rate. It’s the real yield. Here’s the mechanism.

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Gold Confiscation: Could the Government Take Your Gold Again?
Articles

Gold Confiscation: Could the Government Take Your Gold Again?

In 1933, the US government ordered Americans to surrender their gold at $20.67 an ounce — then revalued it to $35 and kept the difference. It was legal. It worked. But five major crises have passed since private ownership was restored in 1975, and confiscation has not happened once. Here is what actually changed, why the legal bar is now substantially higher, and what modern allocated ownership means for the question every gold investor eventually asks.

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Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone
News

Gold at $4,480: Physical Demand Hits a 50-Year Milestone

Central banks reshape gold markets through the most concentrated sovereign buying in decades — but that’s only one of five forces moving gold right now. Physical investment is overtaking jewelry demand for the first time on record. Russia’s figures don’t add up. China just hit the brakes. Here’s what’s driving the market.

Read More »
Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here's the NFP Decision Map.
News

Gold Holds $4,481 With Rate Hike Risk Rising. Here’s the NFP Decision Map.

Gold is holding near $4,481 with rate hike risk rising — a divergence that, in any prior rate cycle, would have already sent gold lower. Tomorrow’s May jobs report is the last major data point before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting June 16–17. Here’s the three-scenario decision map: what a hot print, an in-line print, and a soft miss each mean for gold — and why the Fed’s policy trap makes the structural case for sound money regardless of Friday’s number.

Read More »

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