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Treasury Yields Rise as Softer Inflation Data Eases Economic Concerns

Treasury yields rose Wednesday after milder-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about economic stagnation. The 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.328%, while the 2-year yield rose over 5 basis points to 3.999%.

February’s Consumer Price Index showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annual rate), below economists’ forecasts of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually. Core CPI also came in lower at 0.2% monthly and a 3.1% annual rate. This cooler inflation reduced immediate stagflation worries amid concerns about tariff impacts.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh suggests the Fed will likely keep rates at 4.25%-4.50% this month, but may soon resume cutting rates as inflation eases while growth risks increase. Markets are also monitoring tariff developments, including Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, Europe’s counter-tariffs on $28 billion of U.S. goods, and the suspended plan to double Canadian import tariffs.

Stacked gold bars and scattered gold coins on a dark surface with a blurred financial chart and data table visible on a laptop screen in the background
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April CPI hit 3.8% — and gold dropped. If that feels backwards, it should. Here’s the chain: hot inflation forced traders to reprice the Fed toward rate hikes, which lifted the dollar, which pressured gold. The short-term mechanics and the long-term case are two different things — and today is a perfect illustration of why.

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Stacked gold bars and scattered gold coins on a dark surface with a blurred financial chart and data table visible on a laptop screen in the background
News

The Real Reason Gold Falls When Inflation Surges

April CPI hit 3.8% — and gold dropped. If that feels backwards, it should. Here’s the chain: hot inflation forced traders to reprice the Fed toward rate hikes, which lifted the dollar, which pressured gold. The short-term mechanics and the long-term case are two different things — and today is a perfect illustration of why.

Read More »
Investor studying a falling gold price chart and a CPI inflation headline — illustrating why gold is down when inflation is high
News

CPI Hits 3.8%. Gold Falls. The Mechanism Nobody Explains

April CPI just printed 3.8% — the highest reading since May 2023 — and gold is down anyway. A new hawkish Fed chair takes over Friday, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and central banks bought through gold’s entire 16% correction from its January high. Here’s what each of those facts actually means for long-term holders.

Read More »

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