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Treasury Yields Rise as Softer Inflation Data Eases Economic Concerns

Treasury yields rose Wednesday after milder-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about economic stagnation. The 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.328%, while the 2-year yield rose over 5 basis points to 3.999%.

February’s Consumer Price Index showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annual rate), below economists’ forecasts of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually. Core CPI also came in lower at 0.2% monthly and a 3.1% annual rate. This cooler inflation reduced immediate stagflation worries amid concerns about tariff impacts.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh suggests the Fed will likely keep rates at 4.25%-4.50% this month, but may soon resume cutting rates as inflation eases while growth risks increase. Markets are also monitoring tariff developments, including Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, Europe’s counter-tariffs on $28 billion of U.S. goods, and the suspended plan to double Canadian import tariffs.

gold price drop after May CPI report — fuel pump nozzle held over a gold coin on dark slate surface
News

May CPI Printed 4.2%. Core Inflation Beat. So Why Did the Gold Price Drop?

May CPI came in at 4.2% — the fastest pace since early 2023 — and the gold price fell nearly $100 to 11-week lows. But the headline is almost entirely an energy story: gasoline is up 40.5% year-over-year while core CPI rose just 0.2% for the month, below forecast and down sharply from April. The market sold gold on a number it was already expecting. The data behind that number tells a different story.

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How Gold Price Is Set: The East-West Tide Explained
Articles

How Gold Price Is Set: The East-West Tide Explained

For 90 years, gold has moved in a recurring tide between Western financial markets and Eastern physical holders. Understanding who sets the price — and why that mechanism is shifting — is the most useful mental model a gold investor can carry.

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Gold Is Down 9%. The CPI Print That Could Either Extend the Drop — or End It.
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Gold Is Down 9%. The CPI Print That Could Either Extend the Drop — or End It.

Gold is down 9% from its April high near $4,800. Two forces drove the pullback: the Iran–Israel ceasefire unwound the geopolitical risk premium, and a blowout jobs report pushed Fed rate-hike odds to 68–70% by December. The May CPI print is the next catalyst. Here’s the mechanism behind the move — and what each scenario means for physical holders.

Read More »

Latest News

gold price drop after May CPI report — fuel pump nozzle held over a gold coin on dark slate surface
News

May CPI Printed 4.2%. Core Inflation Beat. So Why Did the Gold Price Drop?

May CPI came in at 4.2% — the fastest pace since early 2023 — and the gold price fell nearly $100 to 11-week lows. But the headline is almost entirely an energy story: gasoline is up 40.5% year-over-year while core CPI rose just 0.2% for the month, below forecast and down sharply from April. The market sold gold on a number it was already expecting. The data behind that number tells a different story.

Read More »
Gold Is Down 9%. The CPI Print That Could Either Extend the Drop — or End It.
News

Gold Is Down 9%. The CPI Print That Could Either Extend the Drop — or End It.

Gold is down 9% from its April high near $4,800. Two forces drove the pullback: the Iran–Israel ceasefire unwound the geopolitical risk premium, and a blowout jobs report pushed Fed rate-hike odds to 68–70% by December. The May CPI print is the next catalyst. Here’s the mechanism behind the move — and what each scenario means for physical holders.

Read More »

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