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Treasury Yields Rise as Softer Inflation Data Eases Economic Concerns

Treasury yields rose Wednesday after milder-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about economic stagnation. The 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.328%, while the 2-year yield rose over 5 basis points to 3.999%.

February’s Consumer Price Index showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annual rate), below economists’ forecasts of 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually. Core CPI also came in lower at 0.2% monthly and a 3.1% annual rate. This cooler inflation reduced immediate stagflation worries amid concerns about tariff impacts.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh suggests the Fed will likely keep rates at 4.25%-4.50% this month, but may soon resume cutting rates as inflation eases while growth risks increase. Markets are also monitoring tariff developments, including Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, Europe’s counter-tariffs on $28 billion of U.S. goods, and the suspended plan to double Canadian import tariffs.

Gold price outlook August 2026: chart showing gold's correction and recovery, with Jobs, CPI, and PPI data releases marking the turning point
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Gold Price Outlook August 2026: What Three Data Prints in One Week Mean for Your Metals

Gold is up 10% in August from near $4,000 — its best monthly gain since January. Three data prints in one week flipped the September rate-hike calculus: jobs, CPI, and PPI all came in soft. Hike odds fell from 50% to 31%. Central banks bought a quarterly record 288.9 tonnes in Q2 even as prices fell. Here is what it means for gold holders — and what to watch before the September 15–16 FOMC.

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Gold bar resting on a crumpled supermarket receipt on a checkout counter, with a blurred retail store aisle in the background — illustrating how falling consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations are driving gold prices higher in August 2026.
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Gold Rebounds to $4,392 as Sentiment Crashes to 51 and Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan’s August Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51 — missing the 54.5 consensus and ending two months of improvement — while inflation expectations rose to 4.3%. The simultaneous drop in growth confidence and rise in price expectations creates a stagflation signal that limits the Federal Reserve’s options and extends gold’s tailwind heading into September.

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Latest News

Gold bar resting on a crumpled supermarket receipt on a checkout counter, with a blurred retail store aisle in the background — illustrating how falling consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations are driving gold prices higher in August 2026.
News

Gold Rebounds to $4,392 as Sentiment Crashes to 51 and Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan’s August Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51 — missing the 54.5 consensus and ending two months of improvement — while inflation expectations rose to 4.3%. The simultaneous drop in growth confidence and rise in price expectations creates a stagflation signal that limits the Federal Reserve’s options and extends gold’s tailwind heading into September.

Read More »

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