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Trump Policies Could Keep Inflation Above Fed’s 2% Target, Analysts Warn

For almost a decade before the pandemic, Americans barely noticed inflation as prices rose so slowly. Now at 2.5% based on the Fed’s preferred PCE index (down from a 40-year high of 7.3% in 2022), some economists question whether returning to the 2% target is feasible or even desired by the Federal Reserve.

The economic landscape has fundamentally changed, with the Trump administration’s aggressive policies complicating the Fed’s inflation management. New tariffs and trade wars threaten to increase prices, while tax cuts and deregulation could stimulate the economy, driving up costs for scarce labor and resources. According to Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, “All anyone has known for a generation is that inflation is 2%. That world is now behind us.”

If inflation remains above 2%, Americans would face significant economic changes: mortgage rates could stabilize around 6%, companies would have greater flexibility to raise prices rather than improve efficiency, and the government would face rapidly increasing interest payments on federal debt, potentially limiting spending on defense and entitlements.

A tall stack of gold coins next to a shorter stack of silver coins, visually representing the gold-silver ratio — the price relationship between the two precious metals.
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Gold is down 1.7% today. Silver is down 5.4%. The gold-silver ratio just hit 67 — and it’s not a valuation signal. It’s a real-time diagnostic of two forces colliding: the Iran peace dividend versus the Fed’s rate-hike threat. Here’s which one is winning, and why Thursday’s PCE report is the swing factor.

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A tall stack of gold coins next to a shorter stack of silver coins, visually representing the gold-silver ratio — the price relationship between the two precious metals.
News

Why Is Silver Down 5%? The Gold-Silver Ratio Explains.

Gold is down 1.7% today. Silver is down 5.4%. The gold-silver ratio just hit 67 — and it’s not a valuation signal. It’s a real-time diagnostic of two forces colliding: the Iran peace dividend versus the Fed’s rate-hike threat. Here’s which one is winning, and why Thursday’s PCE report is the swing factor.

Read More »

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