January 2025 saw retail sales fall 0.9%, marking the steepest monthly decline in a year and significantly exceeding economists’ expected 0.2% drop.
The slump was broad-based, with sporting goods leading the downturn at 4.6% and auto sales falling 2.8%.
Economists attribute the decline to post-holiday spending fatigue and severe winter weather. While inflation readings remain mixed, analysts project the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (Core PCE) will show improvement, dropping to 2.6% from December’s 2.8%.
However, markets are now pricing in a delayed timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with less than 50% probability of a cut before July.