Wall Street’s Fear Gauge Hits Yearly Low as Investors Shrug Off Risk Factors

Gold continues its impressive rally in 2025, rising over 25% and heading for a third straight year of double-digit gains—a performance streak unseen since the mid-2000s. The precious metal has broken from traditional patterns, ignoring typical drivers like real yields and dollar strength. Instead, geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, and central bank buying—particularly from China and other emerging economies seeking to diversify from the dollar—have fueled demand. While gold lacks intrinsic valuation metrics and faces potential headwinds from higher interest rates and cryptocurrency competition, Rothschild & Co maintains a strategic overweight position. They view gold as a crucial portfolio diversifier and

Investors are enthusiastically buying risky assets across all markets following encouraging US inflation data, with Wall Street hitting record highs and volatility measures collapsing to yearly lows. Despite concerns about Trump’s tariffs, traders are betting that falling interest rates will boost an already resilient economy. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting rates could drop 150-175 basis points. The optimism is driven by strong tech earnings, which accounted for 90% of S&P 500 profit growth, and a general “what tariffs, who cares?” attitude among investors.

Gold prices are consolidating near $3,355-$3,360 (spot) and $3,410 (futures) as investors position for a potential stagflation scenario—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Following disappointing U.S. jobs data that showed only 73,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, markets now price an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold target to $3,500, viewing stagflation as the base case rather than a tail risk. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday will be crucial, with a softer inflation reading likely to push gold through resistance at $3,450.

In a statement on Bloomberg TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for substantial interest rate reductions, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive for the U.S. economy. Bessent specifically stated that rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than current levels, which would represent a major shift in monetary policy. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a cutting cycle beginning with a potential 50 basis point reduction in September. This marks a notable divergence from the Fed’s recent cautious stance and suggests the Trump administration is pushing for more aggressive monetary accommodation to support economic growth and market conditions.

Despite record-breaking tariff revenue in July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit still climbed 20% compared to last year, according to Treasury Department data. While customs revenue surged 273% (or $21 billion) due to President Trump’s import taxes, federal spending continues to outpace government revenues. The deficit increase is driven by rising interest payments on the $37 trillion national debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security. Although the Congressional Budget Office estimates tariffs could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, economists warn this comes with trade-offs including slower economic growth and higher inflation.