Wall Street’s Recession Canary Chirps as Treasury Yields Flip

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 3-month yield, creating an “inverted yield curve”—a phenomenon with a strong historical track record of forecasting economic downturns within 12-18 months.

The New York Fed monitors this relationship closely, even publishing monthly updates with recession probability estimates. At January’s end, that probability was just 23%, but February’s dramatic yield relationship shift will likely increase these odds.

This inversion typically occurs when investors anticipate the Fed will need to cut short-term rates to counter future economic weakness. While the previous inversion in October 2022 hasn’t resulted in a recession after 2½ years, market participants worry that the ambitious economic growth expected under President Trump’s agenda might face significant headwinds.