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The aftermath of Trump’s first trade war has reshaped global commerce in unexpected ways. China has strategically decreased its US trade exposure, dropping from 15.7% to 10.9% of total US trade between 2018 and 2024, while strengthening ties with Southeast Asian nations and Russia.
Meanwhile, Vietnam and Mexico have emerged as major US trading partners, partly by becoming alternative manufacturing bases for Chinese companies seeking to avoid tariffs. This shift has created new vulnerabilities. While China’s trade surplus with the US remains the world’s largest, it’s declining under continued Trump-era tariffs and Biden’s technology export controls.
Conversely, Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada have seen their US trade surpluses grow, making them potentially more vulnerable to new tariff threats. These countries now face increased scrutiny, particularly Mexico and Canada, which Trump has threatened with tariffs over immigration and drug trafficking concerns. The situation highlights how global trade patterns have adapted to protectionist pressures, with new risks emerging for countries that have filled China’s void in US trade.
