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The current stock market decline stands out from previous downturns in several key ways. – Stable Earnings Forecasts: Wall Street earnings estimates have barely changed (down just 1.7% since early 2025) despite significant market drops, a pattern only previously seen during the 2020 COVID crash. – Consecutive Opening Declines: S&P 500 futures have opened down more than 1% for four straight sessions—something that’s only occurred once before, after Lehman Brothers failed in 2008. – Dollar Weakness: The U.S. dollar has weakened alongside stocks, breaking the post-2008 pattern where the dollar typically strengthens during market downturns. – Passive Investment Impact: The...

China has vowed to “fight to the end” against what it describes as US “blackmail” in the escalating global trade war initiated by President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. After China matched Trump’s initial “reciprocal” duties, he threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to over 100%. Unlike China’s hardline stance, other Asian countries are taking more accommodating approaches, with Vietnam requesting a delay and Indonesia offering concessions on US imports. The EU has proposed 25% counter-tariffs on various US goods while remaining open to negotiating a “zero for zero” deal. The conflict has severely impacted financial markets, prompting warnings of potential...

The $115 trillion global economy is caught between competing visions from the US and China, creating widespread uncertainty. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs represent an aggressive attempt to reshape global trade in America’s favor, threatening to disrupt supply chains, raise import prices, and transform trade relationships worldwide. Meanwhile, China under Xi Jinping positions itself as the defender of rules-based trade while seeking new markets for its exports. The conflict has entered a dangerous escalation cycle, with Trump threatening additional 50% tariffs if China doesn’t roll back its 34% retaliatory duties. Bloomberg Economics analysis suggests China will likely redirect most of its...

From 2022 to 2024, gold and Bitcoin moved together as alternative assets, with gold gaining 67% while Bitcoin surged nearly 400%. However, in 2025, this relationship has broken down. While gold has gained 16% in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% from its January peak of $109,000. Analysts argue Bitcoin’s previous growth came from major financial firms like BlackRock entering the market, along with government backing from El Salvador and US plans for a crypto reserve. Its recent decline stems from two factors: investors selling after positive news was already reflected in the price, and Bitcoin’s continued link to...

Gold prices have soared to record heights, reaching $3,167.57 per ounce last week. The metal has gained 16% this year, following an impressive 27% growth in 2024. Analysts comparing today’s rally to the 1980s gold boom see key differences suggesting this surge may last longer. Today’s rally is driven mainly by geopolitical factors: President Trump’s aggressive tariffs, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and deteriorating international relations. Unlike the 1980s boom—which ended quickly after the Iranian Revolution and oil crisis were resolved—today’s complex global issues seem unlikely to be solved through swift international cooperation. Other factors pushing gold higher...

Gold prices rose 1% to $3,013.34 on Tuesday, rebounding from Monday’s low, supported by global trade war tensions and a weaker dollar. China has refused to bow to what it called U.S. “blackmail” while the EU offered a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal while imposing 25% tariffs on some U.S. imports. Despite the recent fluctuations, gold remains 15% higher for the year, having reached a record high of $3,167.57 on April 3. Traders expect significant Fed rate cuts this year, with markets closely watching Wednesday’s Fed minutes release.

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Gold Shines as Market Storm Clouds Gather

Economists are forecasting a sharp economic downturn in the U.S. due to President Trump’s recently implemented tariffs. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics predicts the economy will contract by 4.5% in Q2 2023, with further contraction expected in the second half of the year. He describes the tariffs as “the largest one-day tax hike in history” that will lead to price increases, reduced spending, and job losses. Other economists like Michael Feroli of J.P. Morgan predict a recession starting in June, while Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability to 45% from 35%.

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Gold prices fell for the third consecutive day, dropping as much as 2.2% amid market reactions to President Trump’s tariff policies. The decline represents gold’s largest three-day drop since August 2020. Despite Trump administration officials attempting to reassure investors, the precious metal continued its retreat from recent record highs as traders sold gold along with other assets over fears of a global trade war and recession. Despite this decline, gold remains 14% higher for the year.

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Deutsche Bank has significantly raised its gold price forecasts for the coming years, now projecting average prices of $3,139 per ounce in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026 – substantial increases from its previous forecasts of $2,725 and $2,900 respectively. The bank remains bullish on gold despite recent price corrections, setting a year-end 2025 target of $3,350 per ounce. Several factors are driving this optimistic outlook: President Trump’s continued commitment to tariff plans, growing recession risks prompting potential Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as May, and sustained demand from central banks, whose gold purchases have grown from 10% to 24%...

The People’s Bank of China added 0.09 million troy ounces of gold to its reserves in March, marking its fifth straight month of purchases. This follows a six-month pause after an earlier 18-month buying spree. China’s actions reflect a wider movement among central banks worldwide to diversify their reserves with gold amid growing global trade tensions and geopolitical instability. Gold prices reached an all-time high exceeding $3,100 per ounce last month, concluding Q1 with a 19% increase. Despite recent price declines triggered by market-wide selloffs in response to President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, analysts expect continued support for gold prices...

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