Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
About a year ago, Mike Maloney sat down with GoldSilver analyst Alan Hibbard and made a bold call: the U.S. silver stockpile was effectively gone. The setup for a historic price surge was already in place.
At the time, it sounded urgent — maybe even speculative.
Today, it reads differently.
Silver has since pushed to all-time highs. Meanwhile, COMEX vault inventories are draining at a pace few expected. What once looked like a theory now looks more like a playbook unfolding in real time.
So the question is no longer if something is happening. It’s how far this move can go—and how few investors are prepared for it.
Here’s where things stand on the silver shortage in 2026.
When Mike and Alan released their silver stockpile breakdown roughly a year ago, they described a spring being compressed. The U.S. government’s strategic silver reserves were gone. London inventories were draining. Paper leverage on COMEX was building. The short position was enormous. They called it the setup for an explosion.
A lot has happened since then.
What Did Mike and Alan Predict?
The core of their argument wasn’t about timing the market. It was about structure. They believed silver faced a supply problem that few investors fully understood. Their key points were:
The U.S. government sold off its entire strategic silver stockpile decades ago. That removed any backstop for the market. Gold has central banks that can step in. Silver has no such safety net.
At the same time, available silver in London was draining fast. They estimated roughly one-third of inventory disappeared in just two and a half months. At that pace, tradable supply could vanish within months — not years.
Meanwhile, the COMEX short position was rising sharply. Traders were heavily positioned for lower prices. If silver moved higher, those shorts would have to buy back metal quickly. That creates the conditions for a classic short squeeze.
Mike and Alan also pointed to what they called the “New York overnight silver index.” This model isolates trading outside COMEX hours. It suggested a price near $382 per ounce. The implication was clear: pricing dynamics during U.S. hours may be masking true demand. Put it together, and the thesis becomes harder to ignore. It was a market with no buffer, shrinking supply, and crowded positioning on the wrong side.
Their conclusion followed naturally: silver may be more explosive than gold in a supply shock.
Did Silver Already Break Out — Or Is This Just the First Move?
Silver surged more than 130% in 2025. The move was driven by rising industrial demand and tariff-related uncertainty. What looked like a slow squeeze turned into a rapid repricing.
By January 2026, silver reached an all-time high of $121.62 per ounce.
Today, March 20, 2026, silver prices trade near $72. That’s down from the peak — but still over $38 higher than a year ago. Even after the pullback, prices remain far above levels seen just 18 months ago.
The ongoing Iran conflict has triggered a global liquidity crunch. Energy shocks and market stress have forced investors to raise cash quickly. When that happens, even strong assets get sold.
We’ve already seen broad market volatility and forced selling tied to the conflict. Silver is no exception. This is how liquidity events work. Investors sell what they can—not just what they want to.
Markets often treat corrections as the end of a move. In reality, they can signal a pause within a larger trend—especially after supply shocks. J.P. Morgan now expects silver to average $81 in 2026. That’s more than double its average price in 2025.
In other words, even major institutions are adjusting to a higher price regime.
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Is COMEX Running Out of Silver? Inside the 2026 Shortage
This is the critical question. The data is getting harder to ignore.
By late February 2026, registered silver stocks at COMEX had fallen to about 86 million ounces. That’s a 31% drop in just a few months. This is the metal actually available for delivery—not total inventory.
At the same time, paper leverage has surged. There are now roughly 7.1 paper claims for every ounce of deliverable silver. The coverage ratio has fallen to just 14%. That places the market deep into stress territory.
Then came March. On First Notice Day, more than 10,500 contracts stood for delivery. That equals about 52.6 million ounces. In a single day, demand exceeded 60% of all registered inventory.
That is not normal. In a typical delivery month, demand runs between 10 and 20 million ounces. Even December 2025, which saw 46.6 million ounces delivered, was considered extreme. March has already pushed beyond that.
So why hasn’t the system broken?
Because the exchange has tools to relieve pressure. Margin hikes force weaker hands out. Cash settlement offers a way to avoid physical delivery. These mechanisms buy time. But they don’t create silver.
The core issue remains: claims are rising while available metal is falling. That gap is what drives repricing events. And it’s why the market still appears more stable than it really is.
Why Did Silver Pull Back From $121?
A move from under $30 to over $120 in a year is not sustainable in a straight line. These kinds of advances always reset. And when they do, the pullbacks can be sharp.
As volatility surged, CME Group raised margin requirements. This forced leveraged traders to reduce positions. The result was mechanical selling, not a collapse in demand. This distinction matters. What we saw was a leverage unwind—not a change in fundamentals.
The physical market never loosened. Vault inventories did not suddenly rebuild. Industrial demand did not slow. If anything, pressure continued to build beneath the surface.
In fact, many analysts now expect industrial users to increase stockpiling. That trend continues to draw metal out of exchange systems and keeps the market in backwardation. There are also signs of a deeper shift.
Large electronics and solar manufacturers are negotiating directly with mining companies. These off-take agreements bypass futures markets entirely. When end-users go straight to producers, it signals a loss of confidence in paper supply. They are no longer willing to rely on exchanges to deliver metal when needed.
And that may be the most important signal of all. The price pulled back — but the underlying stress never did.
What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio Telling Us Now?
When Mike and Alan recorded their video, the gold-silver ratio was near 90. It took almost 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. On a 340-year historical basis, that level marked an extreme undervaluation for silver.
Since then, the ratio has compressed — but not fully normalized. Both metals have moved higher, which has masked part of the shift. But even after silver’s rally, it remains historically cheap relative to gold. As of March 20, 2026, it remains elevated, hovering around the mid-60s.
Gold-to-silver ratio, 2000–2026
Ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold — monthly
Source: Macrotrends.net / StockCharts.com (gold/silver spot price ratio, monthly). Current reflects Mar 20, 2026 close of 63.00. A rising ratio means silver is undervalued relative to gold.
At the same time, the demand picture is evolving. Silver was added to the U.S. Critical Minerals List in late 2025. That formalized what industrial users already knew: silver is essential to modern infrastructure. It plays a key role in solar energy, electronics, medical devices, and advanced manufacturing.
That designation is not symbolic. It points to sustained, strategic demand.
Looking ahead, the macro backdrop may amplify this trend. Some forecasts suggest gold could rise another $500 per ounce, particularly if concerns around Federal Reserve independence persist. If that happens, silver has historically moved with—and often ahead of—gold during catch-up phases.
What Did Mike and Alan Get Right?
Almost everything structural.
The stockpile was gone then—and it’s still gone. The short position was building, and it ultimately helped drive a powerful short squeeze that pushed silver to record highs. London inventories were draining, and COMEX registered silver has now fallen more than 70% from its 2021 peak.
What they couldn’t predict was timing.
The move came faster than even bullish analysts expected, with silver reaching triple digits within a year. The correction that followed was just as sharp—which is typical for this market.
Where Does That Leave Physical Silver Owners?
The case Mike and Alan made was never about trading paper silver. It was about owning physical metal before structural imbalances showed up in price.
That process has already begun. Whether it has fully played out is another question.
At the current pace of withdrawals, registered silver at COMEX could be exhausted in roughly 131 trading days. That clock is still running.
The spring they described has started to uncoil — but it may not be finished. If you're considering adding physical silver, understanding which silver is most popular to buy is a good place to start.
Investing in Physical Metals Made Easy
People Also Ask
Is silver running out on COMEX?
COMEX still has silver, but the amount available for delivery has dropped sharply. Registered inventories are down significantly, while paper claims remain high. This growing imbalance is why many investors are turning to physical silver through trusted platforms like GoldSilver.
What is the gold-silver ratio telling us right now?
The ratio has declined from extreme levels but still sits above its long-term average. That suggests silver may remain undervalued relative to gold. Historically, these periods often precede strong catch-up moves in silver.
Could silver prices rise again after the recent correction?
It’s possible, especially if supply constraints and industrial demand continue. Many analysts expect ongoing pressure on available silver inventories. Investors focused on long-term trends often use pullbacks to accumulate physical metal.
How long could COMEX silver supply last at current levels?
At the current withdrawal pace, estimates suggest registered supply could be depleted in a matter of months. While exchanges have tools to manage delivery pressure, they cannot create new physical silver. This is why physical ownership remains a key focus for many investors.
Should investors own physical silver instead of paper silver?
Physical silver removes counterparty risk and ensures direct ownership of the metal. In periods of market stress, this distinction becomes more important. GoldSilver helps investors acquire and store physical metals with transparency and security.
