Everyone Is Watching the Fed. Gold Is Watching Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.

The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET. But the number that will most directly determine gold’s next move arrives eight hours later — June PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, releases Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here is the three-scenario framework that connects tomorrow’s print to your gold.

Hike Odds Doubled. Gold Is Down $46. Here Is Why.

Gold is down $46 this morning as Fed rate hike odds have quietly doubled from 16% to 36.5% in two weeks. Here is the four-step real yield mechanism behind today’s move — and why the structural case for gold remains intact.

The Petrodollar System Explained: What It Is, How It Worked, and What’s Replacing It

The petrodollar system gave the US dollar its dominance for 50 years — every country needed dollars to buy oil, and oil exporters recycled those dollars back into US Treasuries. That arrangement is now shifting. Here is how the system worked, why it is under stress, and why central banks are choosing gold as the alternative reserve asset.

The Fed Votes Wednesday. Watch the Tally, Not the Decision.

The Fed votes Wednesday. Most coverage will tell you to watch whether it holds or hikes. That is the wrong number. The vote tally — unanimous or split 10-2 — is the signal that defines September rate-hike expectations and gold’s real yield path. Here is the mechanism most headlines will miss.

Warsh Told Wall Street to Stop Watching the Fed. Gold Already Knew.

Fed Chair Warsh told Congress to stop trading his guidance and start trading the data. Gold price and Fed policy in 2026 now run on the same rulebook physical holders have always used. Here’s the mechanism behind today’s $4,007 close — and the one number that determines what happens next.

Gold Falls as Retail Sales Confirm the Fed Has No Reason to Cut

Gold fell to $4,016 and silver dropped 2.6% Thursday after June retail sales printed +0.2%. Strip out gasoline stations — down 5.3% on the month — and the consumer is actually holding up. That’s the problem for gold: a resilient consumer keeps the Fed parked, real yields elevated, and non-yielding metals under pressure.

Gold Holds as CPI and PPI Both Miss. Here’s Why.

June CPI and PPI both came in below consensus. Gold still isn’t rallying. The reason is oil repricing forward inflation faster than the Fed can act on last month’s data — and what that means for the months ahead.

Gold and Fed Policy: When the System Picks Winners

The Fed chair told Congress today that rate policy gave one generation a once-in-a-lifetime shot at homeownership and priced the next one out. That admission — made under oath — is the clearest official statement yet of what sound money holders have long understood: the dollar system picks winners and losers based on timing. Gold doesn’t.

Warsh Testified. Gold Jumped $90. The Signal Everybody Missed Was in His Report.

Gold jumped $90 this morning after June CPI printed its biggest monthly drop since April 2020. But the more important signal came from a 57-page document almost nobody read — and it has direct implications for long-term gold holders.

Gold Jumped $90 This Morning. June CPI Just Explained Why.

Gold jumped $90 and silver rose 3% after June CPI printed −0.4% — its largest monthly drop since April 2020. Here’s the real-yield mechanism behind the move, and why the headline relief is already reversing.