Gold Climbs Back Above $4,100 as Traders Brace for Tuesday’s CPI 

Published: 11-09-2026, 08:49 am | Updated: 11-09-2026, 08:58 am

Gold and silver are recovering from Friday’s jobs-report selloff, with silver outrunning gold again, as traders position for Tuesday’s inflation report and the December rate decision it will help shape. 

Here’s the gold price before CPI: $4,113.52 an ounce, as of early Monday trading. That is up about 1.05% on the session and back above the psychologically important $4,100 level for the first time since Friday’s jobs report knocked bullion lower. Silver has climbed even faster. It is up roughly 1.40% to $52.66, and that move has pulled the gold-to-silver ratio back toward 78 from a recent high near 79. The question now is simple: does this recovery hold once Tuesday’s inflation report lands? Or does it reverse the way Friday’s rally reversed into the jobs data? 

Key Takeaways 

• Gold is back above $4,100 and silver above $52 after Friday’s jobs-report selloff, with silver outperforming gold for a second straight session. 

• The October jobs report showed payrolls up 165,000 against a forecast near 59,000. That beat pushed CME FedWatch’s implied odds of a December rate hike to 76.8% by Friday’s close, up from 66.9% a week earlier. 

• October’s CPI report lands Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the last major inflation reading the Federal Reserve will see before its December 8 to 9 meeting. 

Why Did Gold Fall After Friday’s Jobs Report? 

Friday’s employment report surprised almost everyone. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October. That is nearly triple the roughly 59,000 jobs economists had forecast. Consequently, traders read the beat as a sign of a resilient labor market, one that argues against a near-term rate cut. As a result, they repriced quickly. CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the implied odds of a quarter-point December hike at 76.8% by Friday’s close. That was up from 66.9% a week earlier. In turn, gold took its sharpest one-day hit in over a week that session, while silver, more insulated by industrial demand, barely budged, a gap GoldSilver covered in detail in Friday’s jobs-report selloff. 

The Edge Every Investor Needs Smarter precious metals investing starts here. The Nuggets Newsletter brings you essential market insights, Fed updates, global trends, educational videos, and much more.

How Do Rate-Hike Odds Move Gold’s Price? 

Gold pays no interest. As a result, its appeal rises and falls with the return investors can get elsewhere. Specifically, when traders price in a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the expected yield on cash and short-term Treasurys climbs. Meanwhile, holding gold instead starts to look more expensive by comparison. That is the mechanism behind Friday’s drop: a roughly ten-percentage-point jump in hike odds over the week, from 66.9% to 76.8%, made gold relatively less attractive. However, Monday’s bounce does not undo that shift. Instead, it reflects traders positioning ahead of a more direct test of it. 

Why Does the Gold Price Before CPI Matter for December’s Rate Decision? 

Tuesday’s October CPI report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is that test. If inflation runs hotter than expected, it would reinforce the case for a December hike. It could also pressure gold back toward the $4,000 support level traders have been watching. If the report comes in cooler, however, the Federal Reserve gains more room to hold rates steady. That, in turn, would ease the pressure behind Friday’s selloff. Either way, a 25-basis-point hike in December would lift the federal funds target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 4.00%-4.25%. Notably, the November jobs report lands Friday, December 4, just days before the Fed’s December 8 to 9 meeting, where it makes its final call. 

What Does This Mean for Gold and Silver Owners? 

None of this changes the slower-moving story underneath it. Central banks, for instance, kept buying gold through the third quarter regardless of the week’s rate-odds swings. That pattern is one GoldSilver detailed in its coverage of Q3 central bank demand. In other words, that is a structural, multi-year bid, not a bet on Tuesday’s inflation print. For someone holding physical metal for the long run, a single CPI report is a data point worth understanding, not a signal to act on. The more durable question is different. Does a government that keeps running large deficits give savers good reason to hold wealth outside the banking system altogether? That answer does not depend on which way rates move next. Tuesday’s number will move the trading desks. It will not, however, change that underlying math. 

SOURCES
1. 247wallst.com — “Odds of a December Rate Hike Jump to 77% After a Blowout Jobs Report”
2. Markets.com — “Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Rises Above $4,100 Ahead of US Inflation Data”
3. CME Group — FedWatch Tool
4. GoldSilver.com — “A Surging Jobs Report Knocked Gold Down. Silver Shrugged It Off.”
5. GoldSilver.com — “Gold Buyers Split in Q3. Central Banks Bought 42% More”
6. GoldSilver.com — Live Gold & Silver Price Charts

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  

You May Also Like: 

• Gold Falls, Silver Holds Firm on Jobs Report
• October Gold ETF Holdings Rose as Fund Assets Fell 6%
• Bank of England Rate Hike to 4%: Two Forces for Gold Owners
• Gold Climbs to $4,124 as Treasury Yields Slide
• Gold Silver Price Today: Midterm Election Results Spark Rally
• Gold, Silver Price Today: Gold Nears $3,970 Resistance
• Q3 Central Bank Gold Buying +42%, Bar-and-Coin Demand -19%
• Gold, Silver Prices Today: Why Are They Rebounding?
• Gold and Silver’s October Selloff: What Changed?