Holiday Lull Keeps Gold Steady, Fed Rate Outlook in Focus

Wall Street may be celebrating new highs, but recession pressures are already spreading across the real economy. As China accelerates its covert gold accumulation and silver enters a fifth straight supply deficit, precious metals continue to show strength while speculative assets falter. This week’s News Nuggets breaks down the new dynamics shaping the gold market outlook for 2025.

The government shutdown just ended, but the Fed’s data problem is just beginning. With key economic metrics compromised or missing entirely, policymakers face tough decisions on rate cuts while gold climbs to fresh three-week highs around $4,207/oz. Add in Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s retirement—opening a seat Trump could influence—and the U.S. Mint’s final penny striking, and you’ve got a week that highlights why investors are turning to tangible assets. From Fed uncertainty to currency debasement, this edition covers the forces reshaping monetary policy and precious metals demand.

The government shutdown is ending after 41 days, but Americans face mounting economic pressures—job security concerns are spiking, and car loan delinquencies just hit levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. Washington’s response? Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks that would require borrowing $100+ billion we don’t have. As fiscal irresponsibility accelerates and economic warning lights flash, silver has surged 58% since April, crushing gold’s 24% gains—a reminder that precious metals shine brightest when monetary discipline fades.