Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 10-22-2026, 02:47 pm
Gold has given back roughly 3.4% since October 9, and silver has fallen nearly three times that. Prediction markets now lean toward a Fed hold on October 28. Is the two-week retreat a warning, or the cost of admission after a sharp run higher? Here is what the data shows.
Spot gold traded near $4,053 this morning, down from its October 9 close of $4,194 [CME Group]. That 3.4% slide happened in ten sessions and accelerated today, when gold opened near $4,141 and slipped to current levels within hours. Silver fell harder, from a close of $60.82 to $55.17, a 9.3% drop. Because silver sold off faster, the gold-silver ratio widened from about 69:1 to 73:1:; it now takes more silver to buy one ounce of gold than it did two weeks ago. For readers who added silver on the “ratio compression” thesis earlier this year, that reversal is this month’s real story, not gold’s headline move alone.
Key Takeaways
- Gold fell about 3.4% from its October 9 close near $4,194 to roughly $4,053 as of this morning, with most of that move concentrated in the past week.
- Silver fell about 9.3% over the same stretch, pushing the gold-silver ratio from 69:1 to 73:1.
- The October 27-28 Fed meeting carries no updated projections; markets price a hold near 86% and a hike near 12%, as of October 22.
- The federal funds rate has sat at 3.75%-4.00% since the Fed’s September 16 hike [Federal Reserve].
- Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, even as first-quarter buying was revised down to just 57 tonnes [World Gold Council].
Gold-silver ratio, 10 trading sessions ended October 22, 2026 (October 22 figure intraday). Source: CME Group.
Why Did Gold Fall From Its October Highs?
Gold’s retreat looks less like a trend change than a cooling-off after a steep run. The metal closed at $4,194 on October 9 (its intraday high that day reached $4,198), extending a rally built on central-bank buying and a hawkish-but-uncertain Fed. Profit-taking after that kind of run is ordinary. Less ordinary is the pace: most of the decline landed in the final week, and today’s session alone accounted for a roughly 2% intraday drop. That kind of compressed move usually means positioning is unwinding into a known catalyst, here the Fed meeting six days out, not new information changing the structural case.
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What Does the Fed’s October 28 Decision Mean for Gold?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28, with its decision due Wednesday, October 28, at 2:00 p.m. ET [Federal Reserve]. This is not a projections meeting, so there is no updated dot plot, only the statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference. Prediction markets price roughly an 86% chance of a hold at 3.75%-4.00%, versus about 12% for a second hike, as of October 22 [Kalshi][Polymarket], a shift from late September, when a back-to-back hike briefly looked like a coin flip. A hold removes one pressure point on gold; a surprise hike would likely extend the pullback. The meeting itself is the real catalyst, not this week’s price action.
Is the Gold-Silver Ratio Widening a Warning Sign?
Not necessarily, though it is a reversal worth watching. The ratio measures how many ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold, and a rising ratio means silver is underperforming, which is exactly what happened: silver fell 9.3% against gold’s 3.4%. Silver’s heavier industrial-demand component makes it more sensitive to growth jitters than gold, which trades more on monetary and safe-haven dynamics. The ratio did this in September too, swinging from 61.7 to 70.4 and back to 66.3 in twelve weeks, so this widening is a normal unwind, not evidence silver’s supply deficit has resolved. Treat it as a data point to track into the Fed decision, not a signal alone.
Are Central Banks Still Buying Gold in Q4 2026?
The most recent full-quarter data still points to strength beneath the noise. The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 report recorded 289 tonnes of net central bank buying, a record for a second quarter, even as it revised Q1 buying sharply lower, to just 57 tonnes [World Gold Council]. That revision matters; 2026’s official-sector pace, though still historically strong, is unlikely to match 2025’s total. But the reserve-diversification mechanism behind that buying has kept accelerating through the correction, not just before it.
What Are Institutions Forecasting for Gold Into Year-End?
Bank forecasts tell a more cautious story than the headline price suggests. In late September, after the Fed’s hike, Goldman Sachs trimmed its end-2026 fair value to $4,650, down from $4,900, while holding $5,400 for end-2027 [Goldman Sachs]. That figure still sits above gold’s current price, framing the weakness as a pause, not a trend change, but it is a lower bar than the $4,900 still circulating in older coverage. Treat any undated gold forecast with suspicion; this one moved twice in four months.
Has the Structural Case for Gold Changed?
None of this month’s volatility changes the mechanism behind gold’s multi-year case. Real yields, not the headline policy rate, plus central-bank reserve diversification and persistent fiscal deficits, are the forces that matter over three to five years, and none reversed in the past two weeks. A hold on October 28 keeps real yields roughly where they are; a surprise hike would test them further. Either way, the case for holding gold and silver as money outside the banking system rests on those mechanisms, not one month’s chart.
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People Also Ask
Gold has pulled back about 3.4%, from its October 9 close near $4,194 to roughly $4,053, mostly on profit-taking ahead of the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. The structural demand case remains intact.
Gold trades mainly on monetary and safe-haven dynamics; silver carries a heavier industrial-demand component, making it more sensitive to growth concerns. That is why silver fell 9.3% against gold’s 3.4%.
A hold at 3.75%-4.00% leaves real yields largely unchanged, removing a pressure point without a strong new tailwind. Markets price this as most likely, at roughly 86% as of October 22.
A second hike would likely push real yields and the dollar higher, weighing on gold short-term and extending rather than reversing this pullback.
Yes, though unevenly. The World Gold Council recorded a record 289 tonnes of Q2 2026 buying after a revised 57 tonnes in Q1, so 2026’s total is tracking below 2025’s pace even as the trend continues.
A ratio above 70 has historically marked periods when silver traded cheap relative to gold. It is one data point among several, not a standalone rule, and should be weighed against the supply-deficit picture.
SOURCES
1. Federal Reserve — Meeting Calendars, Statements, and Minutes (2021–2027)
2. CME Group — CME FedWatch Tool
3. World Gold Council — Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026
4. InvestingLive — ICYMI: Goldman Trims End-2026 Gold Forecast to $4,650 but Holds $5,400 Target for 2027
5. DeFi Rate — Fed Rate Decision Odds: Oct. 28 FOMC Hike or Hold
6. PredictionMarketsPicks — Fed Rate Tracker
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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