Fed Resurrects ‘Transitory’ Inflation View Despite Previous Missteps

Inflation Data Opens Door for September Rate Cut The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in exactly as expected this morning. July’s core PCE rose 0.3% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, while overall PCE climbed 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually.  This goldilocks data — not too hot, not too cold — gives the Fed cover to cut rates at their September 16-17 meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller went public yesterday, backing a quarter-point cut and warning about deteriorating job conditions. He sees more cuts coming over the next 3-6 months as the Fed moves toward a “neutral” 3% rate. The

Gold Steady as Investors Eye Friday’s Inflation Data Gold prices are treading water ahead of Friday’s key economic release: the PCE index, the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge. Spot gold hovers near $3,400 an ounce, with December futures at $3,447.  Here’s what to watch: Markets are practically certain of a September rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch showing 88% odds. But Fed officials aren’t rushing to judgment. New York Fed President John Williams wants to see the data first, and July’s PCE is expected to hold steady at 2.6% year-over-year. The core reading — stripping out volatile food and energy — should