Gold’s Bull Run: Fed Cuts, China Buying, $5K Target

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors 
December 8th, 2025 

Powell Expected to Deliver December Rate Cut Despite Growing Dissent 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to push through another quarter-point rate cut this week despite growing unease among policymakers. Five voting members have voiced reluctance, worried inflation remains too high. 

Adding to the uncertainty? A government shutdown left the Fed operating with stale data. The most recent inflation report they have is from September — making this one of the most data-blind rate decisions in recent memory. 

Meanwhile, Trump is expected to name Powell’s successor soon, with Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner. That’s raising concerns about political pressure on rate policy — the kind of uncertainty that drives investors toward gold. 

The Fed’s easing stance is reshaping how central banks worldwide view their reserve strategies. 

China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Streak 

China’s central bank added 30,000 troy ounces of gold in November, marking its 13th consecutive month of purchases. The buying resumed after a six-month pause earlier in the year, bringing official holdings to around 74 million troy ounces. 

What makes this notable? The purchases are happening despite gold trading near record highs. That suggests Beijing remains committed to diversifying reserves away from dollar-heavy assets — price be damned. 

Some analysts believe China’s actual accumulation is significantly higher than official reports. Estimates point to covert purchases through London that could put total holdings above 5,000 tonnes — more than double what’s publicly disclosed. The steady appetite from the world’s second-largest economy has been a key driver supporting gold’s rally through 2025. 

While central banks add gold, changes in U.S. banking regulation may introduce new financial system risks. 

Bank Regulators Roll Back Obama-Era Lending Restrictions 

US banking regulators just scrapped restrictive 2013 guidance on leveraged lending. They called it “overly broad” and acknowledged it pushed risky lending out of regulated banks and into the private credit market. 

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FDIC admitted the old rules caused banks to lose significant market share to lightly regulated nonbanks. Critics have long argued this created “regulatory arbitrage”, riskier loans simply migrated to shadow lenders instead of disappearing. 

But loosening the reins raises questions about financial stability. DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach recently blasted private credit for enabling “garbage lending” that could spark a crisis. If deregulation leads to increased credit risk, that traditionally benefits safe-haven assets like gold. 

Against this backdrop of easy money and rising systemic risks, some analysts see gold’s rally extending well into 2026. 

State Street Eyes $5,000 Gold in 2026 Bull Case 

State Street Global Advisors sees a potential path for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026. It’s not their most likely scenario, but they give it a 30% chance. After the strongest annual rally since 1979, their base case sees consolidation at $4,000-$4,500. 

What’s driving the optimism? Five structural forces: Fed easing, record central bank buying, surging ETF inflows, elevated stock-bond correlations, and global debt concerns reaching $340 trillion. 

Gold ETF inflows hit a record $72 billion through October — beating 2020’s total with two months to spare. The report argues even a modest 1% reallocation from the $250 trillion in global stocks and bonds would represent $2.5 trillion flowing into gold. That’s an 18% increase in total gold investments. 

Structural tailwinds remain intact, even if the pace of gains moderates from 2025’s blistering run. Some notable institutional investors are already positioning for this new regime. 

Harvard Triples Bitcoin Stake While Doubling Down on Gold 

Harvard University expanded its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 257% in Q3, increasing its position from $117 million to $443 million through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. At the same time, the endowment grew its gold ETF holdings by 99% to $235 million. 

The allocation? Bitcoin 2-to-1 over gold. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called it a “debasement trade,” signaling Harvard’s concern about monetary stability and dollar weakness. 

The $443 million Bitcoin position now represents Harvard’s largest disclosed U.S. equity holding, ranking it among the top 20 holders of the BlackRock-managed fund. The timing proved unfortunate — Bitcoin has dropped over 20% since quarter-end, handing Harvard a potential $89 million paper loss. 

Still, the move signals growing institutional acceptance of crypto as a strategic asset class. Other universities and pension funds are following suit. For precious metals investors, Harvard’s simultaneous bet on both Bitcoin and gold underscores rising concern about inflation and currency debasement. 

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