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SAXO Bank: Chinese Demand Propels Gold Higher

Despite speculative traders reducing their net long positions by 55% since September to a 14-month low, gold has surged nearly 28% this year, already surpassing many analyst’s 2025 expectations.

Two key trends are emerging: gold makes its biggest gains during non-US trading hours while struggling during US pit hours, and while Western ETFs have seen a 1 million ounce decline recently, Chinese ETFs have already surpassed their 2024 inflow totals.

Meanwhile, silver struggles to match gold’s performance, with the gold-to-silver ratio remaining above 100, as silver faces headwinds from its industrial exposure and a slowdown in Chinese solar production.

Dow to Gold Ratio: 100 Years of History Decoded
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Dow to Gold Ratio: 100 Years of History Decoded

Gold has gained roughly 15.6% since January 1, 2026, while the Dow is up just 2.7% over the same stretch. That gap doesn’t register in most financial headlines — but the Dow to gold ratio captures it with precision. Right now, the ratio reads approximately 10: it takes around 10 ounces of gold to match one unit of the Dow index. At the dot-com peak in 1999, it took 43. What does that shift tell us, and where does it go from here?

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