Tariff Confusion and Fed Rate Outlook Keep Gold on Edge

Switzerland’s precious metals lobby is urging U.S. President Donald Trump to make a formal commitment that gold will remain tariff-free. While Trump’s recent statement against imposing gold tariffs boosted market confidence, the Swiss association ASFCMP says only a binding decision will provide the certainty needed for global trade stability.

Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire expects gold and silver to surge in the second half of 2025, with gold possibly reaching $3,600–$4,000 and silver exceeding $40. He cites a weakening US dollar, an anticipated US rate cut, and strong investor demand as key drivers. While gold briefly corrected after US President Trump confirmed no tariffs on precious metals, McGuire believes Q3 and Q4 will be bullish for bullion, with silver showing greater percentage gains. He also predicts crude oil prices will decline in Q4 due to reduced geopolitical tensions, abundant supply, and falling inflation — factors that could lower energy costs

Uncertainty looms over the gold market as Washington considers tariffs on imported gold bullion bars, a move that has already rattled prices and disrupted global trade. Barrick Mining CEO Mark Bristow says the industry awaits official clarification, but downplays potential negative effects, noting miners could benefit if prices rise. Barrick’s Q2 earnings exceeded forecasts, supported by higher gold prices, even as production fell due to halted Mali operations amid a dispute with the military government. The company has no plans to sell its Loulo-Gounkoto mine despite losing control and incurring a $1.03 billion write-down.

Silver’s rally — up 35% in the past 12 months — is being fueled by a mix of industrial demand and safe-haven investment. Uses in photovoltaics, EVs, and electronics have driven consumption to 1.16 billion ounces in 2024, while annual mine supply remains near 1.02 billion ounces, causing structural deficits for five straight years. Since about 70–80% of silver is a byproduct of other mining, production is relatively inelastic. While inflation has cooled slightly, expected U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar could further boost silver prices. Analyst forecasts vary widely—from $28 to $50 over the next year —

In the first half of 2025, gold prices soared 26% to record highs, yet investors continued to buy in, especially through ETFs. The World Gold Council’s Q2 Gold Demand Trends report shows total global investment demand jumped 78% year-on-year, marking the strongest half-year since 2020. ETF inflows in Australia and worldwide offset earlier 2024 outflows, driven by fears of economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions, and currency debasement. Central banks continued large-scale purchases, adding 166 tonnes in Q2, while bar and coin buying rose 11%, led by Chinese and Indian investors. Jewellery demand, however, fell sharply. Analysts say ongoing market volatility and