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Volatility to Value: Navigating Commodity Trading’s Next S-Curve

After an extraordinary profit boom in 2022-2023, commodity trading is experiencing a market correction with industry earnings down over 30% in 2024 and similar performance expected in 2025.

This normalization follows a period when high volatility attracted new competitors and encouraged expansion. Despite current margin compression, long-term projections remain strong, with trading value pools expected to reach $115 billion in EBIT by 2030.

The energy sector has been most affected, with oil and oil products falling 40% and LNG declining 23%. Power, gas, and agricultural markets also contracted significantly, while metals and mining bucked the trend with 20% growth.

The future landscape points to power, gas, and LNG markets becoming the dominant value pools by 2030, potentially overtaking oil due to increasing electrification, renewable energy integration, and market liberalization. Additionally, emerging energy transition assets present new opportunities for traders who adapt to these evolving market conditions.

Original Source: McKinsey

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