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Volatility to Value: Navigating Commodity Trading’s Next S-Curve

After an extraordinary profit boom in 2022-2023, commodity trading is experiencing a market correction with industry earnings down over 30% in 2024 and similar performance expected in 2025.

This normalization follows a period when high volatility attracted new competitors and encouraged expansion. Despite current margin compression, long-term projections remain strong, with trading value pools expected to reach $115 billion in EBIT by 2030.

The energy sector has been most affected, with oil and oil products falling 40% and LNG declining 23%. Power, gas, and agricultural markets also contracted significantly, while metals and mining bucked the trend with 20% growth.

The future landscape points to power, gas, and LNG markets becoming the dominant value pools by 2030, potentially overtaking oil due to increasing electrification, renewable energy integration, and market liberalization. Additionally, emerging energy transition assets present new opportunities for traders who adapt to these evolving market conditions.

Gold bars stacked on US Treasury yield schedule and debt documents showing the tension between gold and government debt in 2026
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Gold Is Up 41% From a Year Ago. The Fed Can’t Stop It

Gold is trading at $4,648/oz — up 41% from a year ago, down 14% from January’s record. Both numbers are true. The one that matters is the 41%. It held through a war, three hawkish Fed holds, and the most fractured FOMC vote since 1992. Here’s why that gap between the record and today’s price is a floor, not a warning.

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Gold bar in front of a laptop displaying CPI and inflation charts — illustrating the gold inflation paradox
Articles

The Gold Inflation Paradox Most Investors Miss

Gold fell around 15% from its all-time high while inflation hit a nearly 3-year peak. The inflation-hedge narrative isn’t wrong — it’s incomplete. Here’s what the data really shows about gold and rising prices.

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Latest News

Gold bars stacked on US Treasury yield schedule and debt documents showing the tension between gold and government debt in 2026
News

Gold Is Up 41% From a Year Ago. The Fed Can’t Stop It

Gold is trading at $4,648/oz — up 41% from a year ago, down 14% from January’s record. Both numbers are true. The one that matters is the 41%. It held through a war, three hawkish Fed holds, and the most fractured FOMC vote since 1992. Here’s why that gap between the record and today’s price is a floor, not a warning.

Read More »

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