Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
🌅 Morning News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
March 25th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor
Gold and silver rebounded sharply this morning, snapping a nine-day losing streak. With Iran talks in flux and oil swinging wildly, gold safe haven demand is back.
Gold Safe Haven Demand Returns After Nine-Day Selloff
Gold steadied after its sharpest weekly drop since 2011. Spot prices climbed roughly 2% Wednesday, recovering to around $4,568 per ounce. Futures pushed above $4,500.
Silver also bounced. Spot silver rose nearly 4% to around $74. After nine consecutive days of decline, both metals are finding buyers again.
The pullback had been brutal. Gold fell 21% from its January high of $5,594—officially entering bear market territory. But analysts aren’t panicking. UBS raised its target to $6,200. BNP Paribas and Global X both see $6,000 by year-end. J.P. Morgan projects $5,400 by late 2027. Yardeni Research still expects $10,000 before 2030.
The dip is getting bought. That tells you something.
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Trump Claims Iran Talks “Ongoing” — Tehran Denies It. Markets Swing Wildly.
The fog of war now extends to diplomacy. President Trump says the U.S. and Iran are “in negotiations right now.” He claims a 15-point peace plan has been delivered through intermediaries in Pakistan. He even declared the war “won.”
Iran tells a different story. A military spokesperson said no talks are happening—”not now, not ever.” Yet Tehran did send a letter to the International Maritime Organization. It says “non-hostile” ships may transit the Strait of Hormuz with coordination.
Markets don’t know what to believe. Oil dropped over 5% overnight on ceasefire hopes. Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time in weeks. But attacks continue. A missile struck Tel Aviv. Drones hit Kuwait’s airport. The Pentagon is deploying thousands more troops.
This is the tension driving every market right now. Hope for peace. Preparation for escalation. And prices whipping back and forth between the two.
Gold vs. Oil: What the Ratio Is Signaling Now
Oil has surged roughly 50% since the Iran conflict began — one of the fastest moves in decades. Yet the gold-to-crude ratio is still flashing something unusual.
Historically, it averages around 15–20x. Today it sits closer to 45–50x, even after oil’s spike.
The chart shows one extreme outlier: April 2020, when oil briefly went negative and the ratio spiked above 140x. That was a liquidity crisis. Today’s elevated ratio reflects something different — persistent uncertainty, not a one-off shock.
That tells us two things. First, oil’s spike, while dramatic, hasn’t fully caught up to gold’s strength. Second, markets are pricing in more than just inflation. Elevated ratios like this typically reflect deeper concerns around growth, policy, and financial stability.
Historically, extreme readings tend to correct. The question is how. Does oil rise to catch up? Or does gold pull back? In past cycles, geopolitical premiums in gold have proven sticky. Oil remains vulnerable to supply normalization if Hormuz reopens.
What we’re seeing now is a rare combination: rising energy costs alongside persistent safe haven demand for gold. This isn’t a clean inflation trade — it’s a broader repricing of risk. And that bid doesn’t disappear overnight.
How Much Has Oil Gone Up?
At the start of 2026, oil traded between $60 and $70 per barrel. Many analysts expected oversupply. Then the Iran conflict hit.
Within weeks, Brent crude surged to $120 at its peak. That’s a 50% jump—one of the fastest moves in decades. Prices have since eased to $95–$100 but remain well above pre-war levels.
This is not normal volatility. It’s a geopolitical shock repricing energy markets in real time.
And here’s what matters most. Markets don’t need an actual supply disruption. Just the risk of one. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil flows. Even partial disruption sends prices sharply higher.
Energy is the transmission mechanism. Oil feeds directly into transportation, manufacturing, and food costs. When oil spikes this fast, inflation follows.
Could Oil Push Inflation Back to 4%?
Recent data suggested inflation was easing. Headline CPI came in around 2.6%, with core inflation near 2.7%. But those numbers were recorded before oil prices surged on escalating tensions with Iran.
That timing matters. Energy feeds directly into transportation, goods, and food costs. When oil rises sharply, those pressures tend to show up in inflation with a lag. Now, economists warn CPI could move back toward 4%, reversing recent progress.
And oil isn’t the only issue. Wage growth remains firm. Supply constraints persist. Trade tensions continue to add friction. This puts central banks in a difficult position. Policy may need to stay tight even as growth slows.
Markets, however, still expect easing. That gap between expectations and reality is where risk builds. Inflation may not be falling — it may simply be reaccelerating. And in that environment, gold tends to regain strength.
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