Silver Eyes Record Highs as Fed Signals Cuts

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
September 18th, 2025 

Fed Hints at Two Cuts in 2025, Raises GDP Forecast 

The Federal Reserve signaled it expects two further interest rate cuts in 2025, while upgrading its forecast for U.S. GDP growth. Inflation remains stubbornly above target, but officials believe price pressures are gradually easing amid slower economic momentum. The updated “dot-plot” shows consensus forming around softer future inflation and a modest rebound in growth, even as labor market metrics point to some cooling. Markets are interpreting the Fed’s stance as dovish-leaning, driving modest gains in risk assets. 

For metals investors, this environment lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver — easing policy typically supports precious metals by reducing yields and dampening the value of the dollar relative to non-yielding assets.  

Dollar Volatile After Fed, BOE Decisions 

The U.S. dollar swung sharply Thursday in response to the Federal Reserve’s signaling of two rate cuts in 2025, while the Bank of England opted to hold interest rates steady. The Fed’s forward guidance added dovish undertones, pulling down U.S. yields, whereas inflation in the UK continues to fester, dampening expectations for near-term easing from the BOE. The pound remained relatively stable, but volatility in global FX markets rose as traders weigh contrasting central bank paths. 

A softer dollar often boosts gold and silver’s appeal, since precious metals gain when dollar-denominated pricing becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. 

Weekly Jobless Claims Decline 

Initial U.S. jobless claims dropped by 10,000 last week, settling at 219,000, far below some economist estimates. Meanwhile, continuing claims also edged downward, signaling that people who recently lost their jobs are returning to work rather than staying unemployed. Regions with manufacturing slowdowns and sectors sensitive to interest rates, like construction and automotive, remain weak, but overall labor demand appears steady. 

The persistence of a healthy labor market complicates the Fed’s path: with jobs still lifting incomes, inflation risks linger even as other sectors soften. That pushes toward gradual rate cuts, which tends to favor gold and silver by keeping the opportunity cost of holding them lower. 

Recession Signals Flash Despite Official Growth 

Despite headline GDP growth, Bloomberg reports many Americans are already experiencing a “rolling recession.” Rising auto loan and credit card delinquencies, slumping manufacturing activity, and weaker consumer sentiment highlight pockets of economic stress. Youth unemployment in particular has spiked — often a canary in the coal mine for broader downturns. While the Fed’s forecasts remain upbeat, households on the ground are struggling with higher borrowing costs and slowing demand. 

For investors, these undercurrents matter: recessions have historically funneled capital into gold and silver as safe havens, offering protection when equities and credit markets falter. 

UBS: Silver Poised for All-Time High

UBS analysts believe silver could soon test record highs as investors increase allocations to precious metals amid economic uncertainty. The bank points to silver’s unique position: demand is booming not only from investors seeking a hedge but also from industrial users, especially in solar panel and electronics production.  

Silver has surged roughly 42% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s ~38% gain so far in 2025., and supply constraints are adding upward pressure. UBS argues that with both monetary and industrial drivers aligning, silver may soon break through its historic 2011 peak near $50 an ounce. 

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