Jim Pogoda, Senior Gold Trader, Gold Bullion International
SEP 12, 2019
Gold finishes $2 higher at $1499 after a whipsaw session, driven by ECB, US-China news
Overnight: gold retains nervous and choppy tone, dips to $1489 against delay in tariffs, then rallies to $1506 against a pullback in bond yields
Looking ahead
All markets will continue to focus on geopolitical events (especially Brexit news and US / UK - Iran tensions, Hong Kong protests), developments with the Trump Administration (especially on US-China trade, potential legal issues), oil prices, and will turn to reports tomorrow on Japan’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Germany’s Wholesale Price Index, Eurozone Trade Balance and Labour Costs, US Import Prices, Export Prices, Retail Sales, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Business Inventories, Baker Hughes Rig Count, and Commitment of Traders for near term direction.
In the news:
Statement from the ECB following policy meeting: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-rates-statement/statement-from-the-ecb-following-policy-meeting-idUSKCN1VX1DN
Assessing the dynamics of gold – ABN: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/assessing-the-dynamics-of-gold-abn-amro-s-georgette-boele-video
A crazy last 12 hours: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/heres-what-happened-in-the-us-stock-market-over-crazy-12-hours.html
YTD Performance | 12/31/2018 | 9/12/2019 | Change | % Change | ||
Gold | 1282.5 | 1499 | 216.5 | 16.881% | ||
DX | 96.06 | 98.37 | 2.31 | 2.405% | ||
S&P | 2505 | 3010 | 505 | 20.160% | ||
JYN | 109.63 | 108.09 | -1.54 | -1.405% | ||
Euro | 1.1466 | 1.1063 | -0.0403 | -3.515% | ||
US 10-year bond yield | 2.69% | 1.785% | -0.009 | -33.544% | ||
Oil (WTI) | 45.45 | 55.07 | 9.62 | 21.166% |
Resistance levels:
$1500 – psychological level, options
$1501 – 9/10 high
$1503 – 9/6 low
$1506 – 9/5 low
$1515 – 9/9 high
$1519 – 20-day moving average
$1517-20 (triple bottom – 8/29, 8/30 and 9/2 lows, 20-day moving average)
$1524 – 9/12 high
$1525 – options
$1528 – 9/6 high
$1535 – 8/13 high
$1549 - $1550 –triple top - 8/26, 8/29, and 9/3 highs
$1553 – 9/5 high
$1557 – 9/4 high
$1591 – 4/7/13 high
$1600 – options
$1604 – 3/31/13 high
$1614 – 3/24/13 high
Support levels:
$1498 – 9/11 high
$1498 – 9/9 low
$1493-4 – 5 bottoms 8/14, 8/19, 8/20, 8/22, 8/23 lows
$1489 – 9/12 low
$1488 - 40-day moving average
$1485 - 86 – double bottom - 9/10 and 9/11 lows
$1484 – up trendline from 5/30 $1275 low
$1480 – 8/13 low
$1473 – 50-day moving average
$1472 – 8/7 low
$1457 – 8/6 low
$1450 – options
$1438 – 8/5 low