Jim Pogoda, Senior Gold Trader, Gold Bullion International
SEP 16, 2019
Looking ahead
All markets will continue to focus on geopolitical events (especially Brexit news and US / UK - Iran tensions, Hong Kong protests), developments with the Trump Administration (especially on US-China trade, potential legal issues), oil prices, and will turn to Japan’s Department Store Sales, China’s New Home Prices, Germany’s ZEW Survey, Eurozone ZEW Survey, US Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHM Housing Market Index, and Long Term TIC Flows for near term direction.
In the news:
Commitment of Traders Report: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
Gold rallies on concern Saudi attack may presage wider conflict: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/gold-surges-as-saudi-attack-spurs-haven-demand-ahead-of-fed-meet
YTD Performance | 12/31/2018 | 9/16/2019 | Change | % Change | ||
Gold | 1282.5 | 1499 | 216.5 | 16.881% | ||
DX | 96.06 | 98.65 | 2.59 | 2.696% | ||
S&P | 2505 | 2998 | 493 | 19.681% | ||
JYN | 109.63 | 108.12 | -1.51 | -1.377% | ||
Euro | 1.1466 | 1.1001 | -0.0465 | -4.055% | ||
US 10-year bond yield | 2.69% | 1.849% | -0.0084 | -31.162% | ||
Oil (WTI) | 45.45 | 61.88 | 16.43 | 36.150% |
Resistance levels:
$1509 – 9/13 high
$1512 – 9/16 high
$1515 – 9/9 high
$1515 – 20-day moving average
$1524 – 9/12 high
$1525 – options
$1528 – 9/6 high
$1535 – 8/13 high
$1549 - $1550 –triple top - 8/26, 8/29, and 9/3 highs
$1553 – 9/5 high
$1557 – 9/4 high
$1591 – 4/7/13 high
$1600 – options
$1604 – 3/31/13 high
$1614 – 3/24/13 high
Support levels:
$1500 – psychological level, options
$1496 – 9/16 low
$1491 - 40-day moving average
$1489 – double bottom - 9/12 and 9/13 lows
$1485 - 86 – triple bottom - 9/10, 9/11, and 9/13 lows
$1490 – up trendline from 5/30 $1275 low
$1480 – 8/13 low
$1476 – 50-day moving average
$1472 – 8/7 low
$1457 – 8/6 low
$1450 – options
$1438 – 8/5 low