Gold Under Pressure as Fed Officials Push Back on December Cut

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 20th, 2025 

As of 10:30 am EST:

• Gold prices are even (+.1%) around $4,084
• Silver is down slightly (-.4%), to $51.20

September Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, But Questions Remain 

The long-delayed September jobs report finally landed this morning, showing employers added 119,000 positions — more than double the 50,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, and revised data revealed August was even weaker than initially reported, with the economy actually losing 4,000 jobs that month. Hiring was strongest in health care and hospitality, while manufacturing and warehouses shed workers. Labor force participation edged up to 62.4%, a seven-month high.  

The report offers the last full snapshot of the job market before the Fed’s December meeting, though its impact may be limited — traders are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of another rate cut. With October data missing entirely due to the shutdown, policymakers won’t get another comprehensive look at hiring until mid-December. The mixed jobs data has Fed officials split on what to do next… 

Fed’s Hammack Warns Against More Rate Cuts 

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack threw cold water on hopes for a December rate cut, warning that lowering rates now could “prolong this period of elevated inflation” and encourage dangerous risk-taking in financial markets. In a speech Thursday, Hammack—who opposed the Fed’s October rate cut—said monetary policy is “barely restrictive, if at all” and argued the central bank should lean against inflation rather than rush to support the labor market. 

She noted that financial conditions remain “quite accommodative” with stock prices near highs and credit flowing easily. Hammack joins a growing chorus of hawkish Fed officials pushing back against aggressive easing. Her comments help explain why markets have sharply dialed back expectations for a December cut, with traders now pricing in less than even odds. 

Small Businesses Point to Inflation as Top Concern 

Inflation remains the number one worry for America’s small businesses, with seven in 10 citing price pressures as their biggest concern heading into next year, according to a new Bank of America survey. The pain is tangible: 77% of small business owners say their costs have jumped 18% on average over the past year, forcing 64% to raise their own prices. Nearly four in 10 have had to reevaluate cash flow and spending plans. 

Yet optimism persists. Three-quarters enter the new year with a positive outlook, and most plan to expand or hire. That tension—stubborn inflation paired with cautious growth—mirrors the Fed’s own dilemma. With CPI still running at 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, and business owners saying customers are “exhausted by ever-increasing prices,” policymakers face a tough call on whether to cut rates further or hold steady. 

Gold Pressured as Rate Cut Hopes Fade 

Gold dropped below $4,070 today as the dollar strengthened and traders pulled back on bets that the Fed will cut rates next month. Spot prices fell as much as 1% before settling around $4,066, weighed down by a firmer greenback that makes gold pricier for foreign buyers. Fed meeting minutes released Wednesday showed policymakers remain worried about inflation risks, dampening expectations for a December cut. 

The shift has been dramatic. Markets now see just a 34% chance of a rate reduction next month, down from 67% a week ago. With no October jobs data coming due to the government shutdown, the Fed will be flying somewhat blind at its December meeting. Still, UBS remains bullish on gold’s outlook, raising its mid-2026 target to $4,500 per ounce on expectations that rate cuts will eventually resume. 

African Rainbow Eyes $5 Billion Copper Bet 

South African miner African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating a massive copper venture in Papua New Guinea alongside U.S. giant Newmont, a deal that could require $4 billion to $5 billion in investment. Chairman Patrice Motsepe said the company has the financial firepower—about $750 million in cash plus another $400 million in credit lines—to pursue the opportunity. 

The move reflects ARM’s strategic pivot toward copper, a metal in high demand as the world electrifies. Papua New Guinea hosts some of the world’s richest copper deposits, making it a magnet for mining companies betting on long-term supply constraints. The project is still in evaluation mode, but if it moves forward, it would mark one of PNG’s largest foreign investments in recent years and cement ARM’s role as a global player in critical minerals. 

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