Despite warnings from top economists that tariffs could trigger a recession (with Goldman Sachs estimating 45% probability and Apollo’s economist at 90%), stock markets continue to rally.
The S&P 500 recently completed its longest winning streak since 2004, erasing most losses that followed Trump’s tariff announcements.
Investors appear confident based on strong economic data and expectations that trade tensions will ease. However, economists caution that tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, could eventually lead to stagflation—rising prices with slowing growth.
While consumer confidence surveys show concerns, actual spending remains robust, suggesting the real economic impact of tariffs hasn’t materialized yet.